How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 07:08 UTCCloses 1 Feb 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: Above 11 billion dollars
All outcomes (7)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 11 billion dollars | 98% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Above 11.25 billion dollars | 95% | — |
Above 11.75 billion dollars | 83% | ▲ 13.0 pts |
Above 11.5 billion dollars | 80% | — |
Above 12.25 billion dollars | 41% | — |
Above 12 billion dollars | 29% | — |
Above 12.5 billion dollars | 18% | — |
How this market resolves
If total political ad spending for the 2025-2026 election cycle is above 11 billion dollars in AdImpact's 2025-2026 Cycle in Review, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 11 billion dollars as the most likely outcome at 98% (as of 5 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Feb 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.