When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 15:48 UTCCloses 1 Jul 2027 (in 8 mo)
Most likely: Before Jul 1, 2027
All outcomes (3)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before Jul 1, 2027 | 35% | — |
Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12% | — |
Before Sep 1, 2026 | <1% | — |
How this market resolves
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court Justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before Jul 1, 2027 as the most likely outcome at 35% (as of 27 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jul 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.