How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 14:25 UTCCloses 3 Jan 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: At least 10
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
At least 10 | 96% | — |
At least 11 | 95% | — |
At least 12 | 95% | — |
At least 14 | 92% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
At least 13 | 90% | — |
At least 15 | 84% | — |
At least 16 | 76% | — |
At least 17 | 64% | — |
How this market resolves
If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 10 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price At least 10 as the most likely outcome at 96% (as of 20 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 3 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.