Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 14:27 UTCCloses 31 Dec 2026 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: At least 50%
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
At least 50% | 99% | — |
At least 55% | 99% | — |
At least 60% | 44% | — |
At least 65% | 24% | — |
At least 75% | 17% | — |
At least 70% | 16% | — |
At least 80% | 12% | — |
At least 85% | 12% | — |
How this market resolves
If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 50% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Highest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price At least 50% as the most likely outcome at 99% (as of 20 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 31 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.