OpenAI market share this week
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 07:07 UTCCloses 9 Nov 2026 (in 4 days)
Most likely: Above 16.7%
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 16.7% | 90% | — |
Above 17.7% | 70% | — |
Above 18.2% | 65% | — |
Above 18.5% | 61% | — |
Above 19.1% | 30% | — |
Above 18.8% | 26% | — |
Above 19.9% | 26% | — |
Above 19.5% | 14% | — |
How this market resolves
If OpenAI scores above 16.7% on OpenRouter text market share by model author week of Nov 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “OpenAI market share this week”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 16.7% as the most likely outcome at 90% (as of 5 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 9 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More tech & ai markets
- KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?56%Gemini
- KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?3%Before Jan 1, 2027
- KalshiBest AI this month74%Gemini
- PolymarketGPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?>99%December 31
- PolymarketWill Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?>99%Yes
- PolymarketGemini Carbon released by...?98%December 31
Latest tech & ai news
Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.