How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 07:45 UTCCloses 1 Feb 2027 (in 3 mo)
Most likely: At least 46
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
At least 46 | 99% | — |
At least 47 | 97% | — |
At least 48 | 94% | — |
At least 49 | 86% | — |
At least 50 | 83% | — |
At least 51 | 76% | — |
At least 52 | 67% | — |
At least 53 | 60% | — |
How this market resolves
If the Democratic Party holds at least 46 seats in the U.S. Senate at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 3, 2026, general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the 2026 election? (Directional)”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price At least 46 as the most likely outcome at 99% (as of 3 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Feb 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Latest elections news
Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.