Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 16:12 UTCCloses 2 Dec 2026 (in 43 days)
Most likely: Above 10
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above 10 | 31% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
Above 12 | 6% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Above 14 | 4% | — |
Above 25 | 4% | — |
Above 16 | 2% | — |
Above 18 | 2% | — |
Above 20 | 1% | — |
Above 30 | 1% | — |
How this market resolves
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 10 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above 10 as the most likely outcome at 31% (as of 20 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 2 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.