First snow of the 2026 season
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 10:42 UTCCloses 4 Dec 2026 (in 46 days)
Most likely: Denver, CO by November 30
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Denver, CO by November 30 | 92% | ▼ 0.1 pts |
Salt Lake City, UT by November 30 | 91% | — |
Pittsburgh, PA by November 30 | 86% | ▲ 1.0 pts |
Denver, CO by November 15 | 85% | ▲ 0.3 pts |
Kansas City, MO by November 30 | 85% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
Detroit, MI by November 30 | 83% | ▼ 1.5 pts |
Minneapolis, MN by November 30 | 82% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Minneapolis, MN by November 15 | 80% | ▲ 7.5 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its window. Because the final climate report for a day is issued the following morning, each market carries a resolution date 3 days after its deadline as an outer limit for that publication lag, not a waiting period: October 31, 2026 (by November 3, 2026); November 15, 2026 (by November 18, 2026); November 30, 2026 (by December 3, 2026). Each market's resolution source is that city's NWS Daily Climate Report, linked in that market's details. Those pages show the latest report only; past daily reports for every city are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “First snow of the 2026 season”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Denver, CO by November 30 as the most likely outcome at 92% (as of 19 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 4 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.