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Polymarket

Spain General Election: Elected Senate Winner

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 07:08 UTCCloses 30 Nov 2026 (in 25 days)

Most likely: PP

92%▼ 3.5 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
95%89%83%

All outcomes (8)

OutcomeChance24h
PP
92%▼ 3.5 pts
Party A
50%—
Party B
50%—
Party C
50%—
Party D
50%—
Party E
50%—
Party F
50%—
Party G
50%—

How this market resolves

Elections to the Senate of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026, concurrently with the election to the Congress of Deputies. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate of Spain as a result of this election. Only senators directly elected in this election will count; senators appointed by the legislative assemblies of the autonomous communities will not count. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of senators elected from the candidacies (candidaturas) attributed to them, as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of votes received nationwide by the candidates of the candidacies attributed to each party, as reported in the official results, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Senators will be attributed according to the candidacy under which they were elected, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Candidacies will be attributed as follows: PSOE–FA: candidacies of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE), all Senate of Progress (Senado de Progreso, SDP) candidacies, including where these appear under regional names, namely "Senado de Progreso de Aragón", "Senado de Progreso / Aurrera Doan Senatua", "Acord de Progrés per Mallorca", "Menorca al Senat", "Eivissa al Senat" and "For…

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Spain General Election: Elected Senate Winner”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price PP as the most likely outcome at 92% (as of 5 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 30 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.