Texas Senate Election: Turnout
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 14:25 UTCCloses 4 Nov 2026 (in 15 days)
Most likely: 9.6M-10M
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
9.6M-10M | 38% | ▲ 24.5 pts |
10M-10.4M | 30% | ▲ 15.0 pts |
11.2M+ | 24% | ▲ 0.8 pts |
9.2M-9.6M | 11% | ▼ 20.5 pts |
10.4M-10.8M | 9% | ▼ 4.5 pts |
<8M | 4% | ▲ 0.1 pts |
8.4M-8.8M | 3% | ▼ 0.9 pts |
10.8M-11.2M | 1% | ▲ 0.4 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Texas Senate Election: Turnout”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price 9.6M-10M as the most likely outcome at 38% (as of 20 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 4 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.