Polymarket

Tusk out by December 31?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 03:12 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Chance of “Yes”

Price over the last 7 days, in %

Outcomes

Outcome	Chance	24h
Yes	8%	—
No	93%	—

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Tusk ceases to be Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Tusk's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Tusk and the government of Poland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Tusk out by December 31”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price “Yes” at 8% (as of 31 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

More elections markets

Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.