
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 03:15 UTCCloses 1 Dec 2026 (in 31 days)
Most likely: November 30
All outcomes (2)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
November 30 | 49% | — |
October 31 | 2% | ▼ 4.0 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Cuba between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Cuba relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Cuba, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price November 30 as the most likely outcome at 49% (as of 31 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.