How strong will Arnab be?

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Arnab. Peak intensity means the highest category of cyclonic disturbance that the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi (RSMC New Delhi), operated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), assigns to Arnab's observed intensity in a Tropical Cyclone Advisory published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". RSMC New Delhi's own bounds, in 3-minute maximum sustained surface wind, are: "Severe cyclonic storm or weaker" is under 64 kt, "Very severe cyclonic storm" is 64 to 89 kt, "Extremely severe cyclonic storm" is 90 to 119 kt, and "Super cyclonic storm" is 120 kt or more. RSMC New Delhi states the category in the subject line of each Tropical Cyclone Advisory and in the first row of the advisory's forecast table, which gives the storm's intensity at the observation time the advisory is based on. Only that observed intensity will be considered. Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. National bulletins, press releases and other IMD products will not be considered, and neither will classifications issued by any agency other than RSMC New Delhi. Post-season best track data and reports for Arnab will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once RSMC New Delhi stops publishing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Arnab. If RSMC New Delhi has not stopped publishing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Arnab by November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest category published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used. Revisions published before RSMC New Delhi stops publishing Tropical Cyclone Advisories for Arnab will be considered; revisions published after that point…