PredictDesks
  • Will the US confirm that aliens… · December 312¢▼ 0.6
  • Alaska Senate Election Winner · Mary Peltola (D)95¢▲ 20.2
  • Which Senate Swing States will … · None96¢▲ 24.6
  • Mississippi Senate Election Win… · Scott Colom (D)96¢▲ 21.3
  • Mississippi Senate Election Win… · Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)4¢▼ 20.5
  • Republican Presidential Nominee… · Joe Kent2¢▲ 1.5
  • Alaska Senate Election Winner · Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)5¢▼ 20.1
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran befor… · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?13¢▼ 3.0
  • Prime Minister of Israel after … · Benjamin Netanyahu28¢▼ 0.4
  • US-Iran ceasefire continues thr… · October 31100¢▲ 0.2
  • Republican Presidential Nominee… · John N. Kennedy0¢▲ 0.1
  • Republican Presidential Nominee… · Candace Owens0¢
  • US-Iran ceasefire continues thr… · November 2100¢▲ 0.1
  • UEFA Champions League: 2027 Cha… · Shakhtar Donetsk0¢
  • Republican Presidential Nominee… · Matt Gaetz0¢▲ 0.1
  • Republican Presidential Nominee… · Rick Scott0¢▲ 0.1
  • Presidential Election Winner 20… · Tom Cotton0¢▲ 0.1
  • Democratic Presidential Nominee… · Hakeem Jeffries0¢
Polymarket

When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 07:08 UTCCloses 2 Jan 2027 (in 58 days)

Most likely: November 15 - 30, 2026

40%▲ 14.0 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
53%38%24%

All outcomes (5)

OutcomeChance24h
November 15 - 30, 2026
40%▲ 14.0 pts
Before November 15, 2026
31%▲ 6.0 pts
No return before January 1, 2027
15%▼ 5.0 pts
December 1 - 15, 2026
6%▼ 18.5 pts
December 16 - 31, 2026
6%▼ 17.0 pts

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before January 1, 2027." If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before January 1, 2027." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “When will the Rhine River return to normal levels”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price November 15 - 30, 2026 as the most likely outcome at 40% (as of 5 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 2 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

More climate & weather markets

Latest climate & weather news

Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.