
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 07:08 UTCCloses 2 Jan 2027 (in 58 days)
Most likely: November 15 - 30, 2026
All outcomes (5)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
November 15 - 30, 2026 | 40% | ▲ 14.0 pts |
Before November 15, 2026 | 31% | ▲ 6.0 pts |
No return before January 1, 2027 | 15% | ▼ 5.0 pts |
December 1 - 15, 2026 | 6% | ▼ 18.5 pts |
December 16 - 31, 2026 | 6% | ▼ 17.0 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before January 1, 2027." If readings for timestamps on or after January 1, 2027 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before January 1, 2027 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before January 1, 2027." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “When will the Rhine River return to normal levels”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price November 15 - 30, 2026 as the most likely outcome at 40% (as of 5 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 2 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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