Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 07:07 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 57 days)
Most likely: Belgium
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Belgium | 9% | ▼ 0.5 pts |
New Zealand | 8% | ▼ 0.5 pts |
Italy | 8% | — |
The Netherlands | 7% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
United States | 6% | ▼ 0.1 pts |
Israel | 6% | ▼ 0.1 pts |
Greece | 6% | ▼ 0.7 pts |
Finland | 5% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price Belgium as the most likely outcome at 9% (as of 5 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.