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Polymarket

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 03:13 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: December 31

14%
Price over the last 7 days, in %
52%33%14%

All outcomes (3)

OutcomeChance24h
December 31
14%—
November 30
5%▼ 2.0 pts
October 31
<1%—

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yemeni forces enter any part of Sanaa, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Yemeni forces" refers to the armed forces of the internationally recognized Government of Yemen under the Presidential Leadership Council, and any armed group operating under or on behalf of it. This includes the Yemeni Armed Forces, the Giants Brigades, the Nation's Shield Forces (also rendered Homeland Shield Forces), the National Resistance Forces, and any other force confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be operating under or on behalf of the internationally recognized Government of Yemen. The armed forces of any other state, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, will not qualify on their own; the participation of foreign state forces alongside qualifying Yemeni forces will not disqualify an entry that otherwise meets the terms of this market. "Sanaa" refers to the city of Sanaa, Yemen, coextensive with the municipality of Amanat Al Asimah, as defined by its official administrative boundaries. Sanaa Governorate is a separate administrative entity, and entry into any part of Sanaa Governorate will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Yemeni forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Sanaa, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Only operations involving troops on the ground within Sanaa will qualify. An announcement, threat, or claim of Yemeni forces entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. A force already present in Sanaa that comes to qualify as Yemeni forces by changing allegiance, defecting, or surrendering will not constitute entry. The entrance of Yemeni emissaries for the purpose of negotiating a…

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by...”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 14% (as of 31 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

More elections markets

Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.

Yemeni forces enter Sanaa by... odds: December 31 14% on Polymarket