NFL playoff odds 2026: the playoff picture for all 32 teams, from the 49ers and Bills at 93–94% to the Eagles at 8%
Kalshi prices every team’s chance of making the playoffs. At the start of Week 8, San Francisco, Buffalo and Kansas City are near-certain, the unbeaten Vikings are at 85%, the 5–2 Browns are only 39%, and the Eagles have collapsed from 80% in September to 8% after losing Jalen Hurts. The full table with records, the biggest movers, the division races, the Super Bowl and conference odds, and the trade deadline.
In this article
The NFL season is not yet halfway done, but the playoff market has already made some big calls. Kalshi lists a contract for every team on whether it makes the playoffs. On the morning of 29 October, before Week 8 kicks off, San Francisco and Buffalo (about 93.5% each) and Kansas City (89.5%) are close to sure things.
At the other end, the Philadelphia Eagles, who were 80% in September, are down to about 8%. They have lost five straight and their quarterback, Jalen Hurts, is out for the season.
Fourteen teams make it, seven in each conference: the four division winners and three wild cards. Only the No. 1 seed in each conference skips the wild-card round. Here is where everyone stands.
The full playoff picture
Records are through Week 7, from NFL.com. Prices are the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask on 29 October.
| AFC | Record | Make playoffs | NFC | Record | Make playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 5–1 | 93.5% | San Francisco | 6–1 | 93.5% |
| Kansas City | 5–1 | 89.5% | Minnesota | 6–0 | 84.5% |
| Jacksonville | 4–2 | 84.5% | Chicago | 5–2 | 72.5% |
| Cincinnati | 4–2 | 80.5% | Seattle | 4–3 | 72% |
| Denver | 5–2 | 77.5% | Detroit | 4–2 | 69% |
| New England | 4–3 | 69.5% | Dallas | 3–4 | 50.5% |
| Baltimore | 4–3 | 62.5% | LA Rams | 3–4 | 50.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 5–2 | 50% | NY Giants | 4–2–1 | 44% |
| Cleveland | 5–2 | 38% | Green Bay | 4–3 | 43% |
| Houston | 2–5 | 29.5% | Atlanta | 3–4 | 37.5% |
| Las Vegas | 3–4 | 14.5% | Carolina | 3–3 | 36.5% |
| Indianapolis | 2–5 | 4.5% | Tampa Bay | 2–5 | 22.5% |
| NY Jets | 2–5 | 3.5% | New Orleans | 2–5 | 15.5% |
| LA Chargers | 0–6 | 2% | Washington | 1–4–1 | 13.5% |
| Miami | 1–5 | 1.5% | Philadelphia | 2–5 | 7.5% |
| Tennessee | 1–6 | 1.5% | Arizona | 2–5 | 1.5% |
Kalshi, KXNFLPLAYOFF-27, 29 October 2026, about 7 a.m. ET. Live prices: NFL playoff qualifiers on Kalshi.
A quick check shows the market is consistent. Add up the AFC column and you get about 7.0; the NFC comes to about 7.1. Exactly seven teams per conference will make it, so the prices are internally coherent, with a small overround of the kind you would expect from bid-ask spreads.
The biggest movers
Comparing today's prices with the end of August shows how much the first seven weeks changed.
Source: Kalshi market data, KXNFLPLAYOFF-27, daily candles to 28 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Eagles | Vikings | Browns | Giants | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug | 64% | 43% | 14% | 28% |
| 14 Sep | 71% | 49% | 8% | 43% |
| 20 Sep | 80% | 54% | 16% | 50% |
| 29 Sep | 71% | 71% | 16% | 21% |
| 5 Oct | 50% | 69% | 29% | 22% |
| 11 Oct | 36% | 83% | 19% | 32% |
| 17 Oct | 24% | 82% | 19% | 29% |
| 23 Oct | 16% | 80% | 32% | 32% |
| 25 Oct | 19% | 77% | 38% | 47% |
| 26 Oct | 9% | 84% | 36% | 44% |
| 28 Oct | 8% | 85% | 39% | 44% |
Source: Kalshi, KXNFLPLAYOFF-27, closing prices on 30 August and 28 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| San Francisco | 39 |
| Minnesota | 42 |
| Cleveland | 25 |
| Kansas City | 24 |
| Buffalo | 17 |
| NY Giants | 16 |
| Pittsburgh | 15 |
Philadelphia: from 80% to 8%
No team's season has turned faster. The Eagles were about 64% before the season and peaked near 80% around 20 September. Then the losses started: five in a row, ending with a 38–21 home defeat to Dallas on Monday night.
The bigger blow came off the field. Hurts was placed on injured reserve after doctors found deep vein thrombosis and bilateral pulmonary emboli, and he is expected to miss the rest of the season while being treated with blood thinners. Reports say the clot began in his calf after an injury in the 4 October loss to the Rams, and that he played the next game, in London against Jacksonville, with it. Tanner McKee has taken over at quarterback, and running back Saquon Barkley missed the Dallas game with a hamstring injury.
At 2–5 with a backup quarterback, the market gives them about one chance in thirteen. On Polymarket they are about 1.5% to win the NFC. Our Cowboys–Eagles preview has the odds going into Monday's game.
Minnesota: the last unbeaten team
The Vikings are 6–0, the only unbeaten team left, after the 49ers and Chiefs both lost in Week 7. Their playoff price has nearly doubled, from 43% in August to about 85%. Yet Polymarket gives them only about 40% to win the NFC North, with Chicago (5–2) and Detroit (4–2) at about 23–24% each. The market thinks the division is still open even if the Vikings are almost certainly in the field.
Cleveland: 5–2 and still an underdog
The Browns share the AFC North lead with Pittsburgh at 5–2, but they are only about 38% to make the playoffs. That is lower than 4–2 Cincinnati (80.5%) and 4–3 Baltimore (62.5%). The market is pricing the teams, not the records. A season simulation from Stokastic lands in the same place, at 38%, and other models put the Browns in the mid-40s.
Cleveland has climbed from 3% in mid-September, with Deshaun Watson at quarterback; Yahoo Sports noted he recently threw for his first 300-yard game in 2,120 days. Sunday's game at Pittsburgh, where the Steelers are about four-point favourites, will settle a lot. Polymarket's AFC North market makes the Bengals favourites at about 44.5%, ahead of Baltimore (24.5%) and Pittsburgh (18.5%).
The NY Giants and the NFC East
The Giants lead the NFC East at 4–2–1, with a tie on their record. Kalshi gives them only 44% to make the playoffs, against 50.5% for 3–4 Dallas. On Polymarket the Cowboys are slight favourites to win the division, at 44.5% against 40%, after Monday's win in Philadelphia.
The division races
These are Polymarket's division-winner markets on the morning of 29 October.
| Division | Favourite | Next |
|---|---|---|
| AFC East | Buffalo 72.5% | New England 27.5% |
| AFC North | Cincinnati 44.5% | Baltimore 24.5%, Pittsburgh 18.5% |
| AFC South | Jacksonville 79% | Houston 15% |
| AFC West | Kansas City 62.5% | Denver 35.5% |
| NFC East | Dallas 44.5% | NY Giants 40% |
| NFC North | Minnesota 40.5% | Chicago 24%, Detroit 23% |
| NFC South | Atlanta 35.7% | Carolina 35.5%, Tampa Bay 18.5% |
| NFC West | San Francisco 72% | Seattle 19.5% |
Polymarket division markets, 29 October 2026.
The NFC South is the closest race in football: Atlanta and Carolina are within a fraction of a point. It also shows why division titles matter for weak teams. The South's winner gets a home playoff game whatever its record, so its four teams' playoff prices add up to more than 100%.
Super Bowl and conference odds
| Team | Win AFC or NFC | Win the Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | 25.5% (NFC) | 14.9% |
| Buffalo | 23.5% (AFC) | 11.5% |
| Kansas City | 17.5% (AFC) | 10.2% |
| Seattle | 13% (NFC) | 8% |
| LA Rams | 12.5% (NFC) | 7.5% |
| Jacksonville | 13% (AFC) | 6.1% |
| Chicago | 12.5% (NFC) | 6% |
| Baltimore | 10.5% (AFC) | 5.1% |
| Cincinnati | 9% (AFC) | 5% |
| Minnesota | 10.4% (NFC) | 4.4% |
Polymarket, 29 October 2026. The Super Bowl market has traded about $70 million, one of the largest on the site. Live prices: Super Bowl on Polymarket · AFC · NFC.
The unbeaten Vikings are only 4.4% to win it all, behind nine teams with worse records. Making the playoffs and winning three or four playoff games are very different things, and the market prices Minnesota as a likely playoff team rather than a likely champion. Our Super Bowl odds guide and NFL MVP odds go deeper on the title race.
How the NFL playoff format works
- Seven teams per conference: four division winners, seeded 1 to 4 by record, and three wild cards, seeded 5 to 7.
- Only the No. 1 seed gets a bye. The other six teams play on wild-card weekend, with No. 2 hosting No. 7, No. 3 hosting No. 6 and No. 4 hosting No. 5.
- Ties count as half a win and half a loss in the standings, which is why the Giants' 4–2–1 sits between 4–3 and 5–2.
- Tiebreakers start with head-to-head results, with division and conference records next, so games against division rivals count double in practice.
That last point is why the market looks at schedules, not only records. A team with three division games left against its closest rivals has more control over its fate than one that has already played them.
What to watch next
- Week 8 starts tonight, Thursday 29 October, with Panthers–Packers on Thursday Night Football. Both are in the middle of the pack, at about 36–43%.
- Cleveland at Pittsburgh on Sunday, 1 November, is the swing game for the AFC North.
- The trade deadline is Tuesday 10 November at 4 p.m. ET, the Tuesday after Week 9. Prices can move when contenders add players or struggling teams sell.
How these contracts settle
Kalshi's playoff contracts pay $1 if the team qualifies for the postseason and nothing if it does not. Once a team clinches, its contract trades just under $1 until it settles, and once a team is eliminated it falls to zero.
The division and conference markets settle on the official results, and the Super Bowl market on the winner of the game. If you trade several of them, remember they are correlated: a quarterback injury hits a team's playoff, division and Super Bowl prices at once. Our parlays guide explains how correlation works on these exchanges.
Key points
- San Francisco and Buffalo are about 93.5% to make the playoffs, Kansas City 89.5% and Jacksonville 84.5%.
- The unbeaten Vikings are 84.5% to make it but only about 40% to win their division and 4.4% to win the Super Bowl.
- Cleveland shares first place in the AFC North at 5–2 but is only about 38%. The market rates Cincinnati higher.
- Philadelphia has fallen from 80% to about 8% after five straight losses and Jalen Hurts' season-ending blood clots.
- The 49ers lead the Super Bowl market at about 15%. The trade deadline is 10 November.
Related reading
- Super Bowl odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
- NFL MVP odds
- College Football Playoff odds
- How sports prediction markets work
- Is Kalshi legal in my state?
Odds are market prices, not predictions of ours, and they change quickly. Nothing here is betting advice. Prediction markets are for adults where they are legal, so check the rules where you live.
