Maine Senate race 2026 odds: Jackson vs Collins
Prediction markets make Troy Jackson (D) the favourite in the Maine Senate race, at 60% on Polymarket and 57% on Kalshi. A win would flip the seat from Republicans to Democrats. That makes it one of the closest races on the map.
Odds updated just now · election day November 3
DTroy Jackson
58%
Polymarket 60% · Kalshi 57%
RSusan Collins
42%
Polymarket 41% · Kalshi 43%
Democrats 58%Republicans 42%
Race facts
- Office
- U.S. Senate
- Held by
- Republicans
- Chance it flips
- 58%
- Platforms disagree by
- 2 pts
- Election day
- Nov 3, 2026
All candidates
Each platform’s price, scaled so its candidates add up to 100%, and the average.
- DTroy Jackson60%57%58%
- RSusan Collins41%43%42%
More 2026 races
All 2026 races: Senate · governors · overview. How the odds work: how prediction markets work. Not financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Troy Jackson (Democratic), at 58% on average across Polymarket (60%) and Kalshi (57%).
Which party holds the seat now?
Republicans. Markets give about a 58% chance it changes party in November.
When is the election?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 17 days from now. The markets resolve once the race is called or certified, according to each platform’s rules.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi show different odds?
They are separate exchanges with different traders and fees, so the same candidate can trade a few points apart. When the gap is large, buying on the cheaper side can be an opportunity, as explained in our arbitrage guide.