Brazil Presidential election winner?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 13:24 UTCClosed 26 Oct 2026
Most likely: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | >99% | ▲ 77.6 pts |
Ciro Gomes | 1% | — |
Augusto Cury | 1% | — |
Flávio Bolsonaro | <1% | ▼ 80.6 pts |
Eduardo Bolsonaro | <1% | — |
Ratinho Júnior | <1% | — |
Romeu Zema | <1% | — |
Aldo Rebelo | <1% | — |
How this market resolves
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Brazil Presidential election winner”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the most likely outcome at >99% (as of 26 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 26 Oct 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.