Israel election tomorrow: Polymarket gives Eisenkot 56% to become prime minister, Netanyahu 27.5%
Israel votes on Tuesday, 27 October. On the eve of the election Polymarket gives Gadi Eisenkot a 56% chance of becoming prime minister and Kalshi 55%, up from about 49% last week, with Benjamin Netanyahu at 26–27.5%. The odds, the final polls, when results come in and why coalition maths keeps it close.
In this article
Israelis vote on Tuesday, 27 October, and prediction markets expect Benjamin Netanyahu to lose office. Polymarket gives former army chief Gadi Eisenkot a 56% chance of being the next prime minister and Kalshi 55%. Netanyahu is at 27.5% on Polymarket and 26% on Kalshi, with Naftali Bennett at 10.5–12%.
Prices on the morning of 26 October 2026.
The odds
| Next prime minister | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eisenkot | 56% | 55% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 27.5% | 26% |
| Naftali Bennett | 10.5% | 12% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 1.5% | n/a |
Polymarket's prime minister market has traded $54.2 million. A separate Polymarket market on which party wins the most seats gives Eisenkot's Yashar party 73.5% and Likud 26%. Traders expect Likud to shrink: the most likely band for its seat count is 20–24 at 42%, with fewer than 20 at 31%. A market on whether the vote goes ahead as scheduled is at 97.5%.
Source: Polymarket price history, September–October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Eisenkot | Netanyahu | Bennett | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep | 54% | 30% | 10% |
| 28 Sep | 52% | 29% | 13% |
| 5 Oct | 48% | 37% | 11% |
| 12 Oct | 45% | 31% | 15% |
| 19 Oct | 48% | 29% | 13% |
| 23 Oct | 49% | 29% | 16% |
| 26 Oct | 56% | 28% | 11% |
Eisenkot's price has jumped about seven points since Friday, mostly at Bennett's expense. When we first looked at this market, it had Eisenkot at about 50% and Bennett at 18%.
Live prices: prime minister on Polymarket · on Kalshi · most seats on Polymarket.
The final polls
Israeli law stops the publication of polls in the last days of a campaign, so the final surveys came out on Friday, 23 October. All three main TV polls put Yashar first:
| Poll | Yashar | Likud |
|---|---|---|
| Kan | 22 | 20 |
| Channel 12 | 23 | 21 |
| Channel 13 | 22 | 19 |
None gave either bloc the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu's camp polled around 50 seats and the Zionist opposition in the low-to-mid 50s, with Arab-majority parties holding the balance at 14–16 seats. Eisenkot's camp has ruled out relying on them, which leaves both sides short on paper.
Why the market still favours Eisenkot
Leading the vote is not the same as forming a government. The prime minister is whoever can assemble 61 seats in the Knesset, which can take weeks of talks. Traders are betting that Netanyahu's bloc cannot get there and that Eisenkot, as leader of the largest party, is best placed to build an alternative. A strong showing by small parties near the 3.25% electoral threshold, or a failure by any coalition to form, could change that, which is why Netanyahu still has more than a one-in-four chance.
When results come in
Polling stations close at 10 p.m. Israel time (8 p.m. GMT, 4 p.m. Eastern), when the TV channels publish exit polls. Most of the count is in by Wednesday morning. The prime minister market resolves on who is sworn in after the election, so it may stay open for weeks of coalition talks; check each market's rules before trading.
