Israel election odds: Polymarket favours Gadi Eisenkot over Netanyahu before the 27 October vote
Polymarket gives Gadi Eisenkot about a 50% chance of becoming prime minister after Israel’s 27 October election, against 26.5% for Benjamin Netanyahu. Eisenkot’s Yashar leads most polls, but neither bloc reaches 61 seats. The odds, the polls and why coalition maths makes this hard to call.
Polymarket traders think Benjamin Netanyahu is more likely than not to lose office after Israel's election on Tuesday, 27 October. Former army chief Gadi Eisenkot is the favourite to be the next prime minister at about 50%, with Netanyahu at 26.5% and Naftali Bennett at 18%.
Prices as of 22 October 2026.
The odds
| Market | Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Next prime minister | Gadi Eisenkot | 49.6% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 26.5% | |
| Naftali Bennett | 18% | |
| Largest party | Yashar (Eisenkot) | 69.5% |
| Likud (Netanyahu) | 30.5% |
The prime-minister market has traded about $50.5 million. Polymarket also prices Likud winning 20–24 seats as the most likely range (40.5%) and gives about 88% that the vote goes ahead as scheduled. Live prices: next prime minister · largest party.
What the polls say
- Yashar leads most polls. A Channel 12 poll put Eisenkot's party first with 23 seats to Likud's 19; Channel 13 had 20 to 18. Channel 14 and i24NEWS polls had Likud first.
- Neither bloc has a majority. Channel 12 gave the anti-Netanyahu bloc 55 seats to the pro-Netanyahu bloc's 51; Channel 13 had 52 to 49. A government needs 61 of 120.
- The Arab parties are pivotal. Eisenkot's bloc has ruled out relying on them, which is why its poll lead does not translate into a clear path to a majority.
- Gantz is out. Benny Gantz's Blue and White withdrew; its voters are expected to lean toward the anti-Netanyahu camp.
- Threshold risk. Several smaller parties are polling near the 3.25% threshold. Whether they get in can swing the blocs by several seats.
Why it is hard to call
The vote is only the first step. The president asks the leader most likely to form a coalition to try, and negotiations can take weeks, which is why "largest party" and "next prime minister" trade so far apart. Read the resolution rules before trading: a market on who becomes prime minister can take far longer to settle than one on the largest party (how markets resolve).
Israel's war with Iran this year sits behind the campaign; our explainer on Polymarket's Iran markets covers the related contracts. The markets trade on Polymarket's international site, which does not accept US residents.
