Highest-grossing movie of 2026 odds: Spider-Man is 89% on Polymarket, and Avengers: Doomsday would need a record two weeks
Spider-Man: Brand New Day has made $2.52 billion worldwide and about $959 million in the US and Canada, and Polymarket makes it an 89% favourite to be 2026’s highest-grossing film. Avengers: Doomsday opens on 18 December and is priced at about 10%. The market counts only domestic gross earned in 2026, which is why the gap is so wide. The odds, the box office numbers and what Doomsday would need.
In this article
- The odds
- How the market settles
- Where the 2026 box office stands
- What Avengers: Doomsday would need
- Domestic v worldwide: why the ranking changes
- Could a November release catch up?
- How the odds have moved
- Other box office markets
- What could still go wrong for Spider-Man
- A short history of the market
- How to trade it
- FAQ
Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the overwhelming favourite to finish 2026 as the year’s highest-grossing film. Polymarket’s market on the highest-grossing movie of 2026 has the Sony release at 89%, with Avengers: Doomsday at 10.45% and every other film at 0.05%. The market has traded $18.4 million.
The film has earned $2.52 billion worldwide, including about $959 million in the US and Canada, according to Box Office Mojo. Avengers: Doomsday, Marvel’s next team-up, does not open in the US until 18 December. Because the market counts only domestic gross earned in 2026, Doomsday would have to out-earn Spider-Man’s entire domestic run in about two weeks.
The odds
Source: Polymarket public market data; Box Office Mojo
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day: 89% (bid 88¢, ask 90¢).
- Avengers: Doomsday: 10.45% (bid 10.2¢, ask 10.7¢), the most traded name on the market at $1.56 million.
- Everything else: 0.05%, including The Odyssey, Toy Story 5, Michael and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping.
How the market settles
The rules matter more than the headlines. The market resolves on the film with the highest figure in the “Gross” column of Box Office Mojo’s 2026 calendar-gross chart once data for 31 December is available. That is:
- Domestic only. Worldwide box office does not count. Spider-Man’s $2.52 billion is irrelevant; its domestic total is what matters.
- Calendar 2026 only. Money a film earns in 2027 does not count, so a December release has only a couple of weeks to build its total.
- Ties go to the film that comes first alphabetically.
If final data is not available by 7 January 2027, another credible source is used. The market cannot settle before the 31 December figures appear, so expect it to resolve in early January.
Where the 2026 box office stands
Source: Box Office Mojo 2026 worldwide chart, November 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | $2,521m |
| The Odyssey | $1,803m |
| Toy Story 5 | $1,149m |
| Michael | $1,029m |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | $1,013m |
| The Devil Wears Prada 2 | $693m |
| Project Hail Mary | $685m |
Spider-Man has been the dominant film of the year. Released in the US on 31 July, it opened to $360.1 million in the US and Canada, according to The Numbers, a record opening weekend, and by early November had taken $959.0 million domestically and $1.56 billion internationally, Box Office Mojo reports.
Wikipedia lists it as the third-highest-grossing film of all time and the highest-grossing film ever in the US and Canada, having passed The Force Awakens’ $936 million in September. It is one of only eight films to cross $2 billion worldwide and one of three to cross $2.5 billion, according to Wikipedia’s 2026 in film page.
In domestic terms the rest of the year is far behind. The Odyssey has taken about $626 million in the US and Canada, Toy Story 5 $480 million and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie $430 million, Box Office Mojo’s figures show.
What Avengers: Doomsday would need
Avengers: Doomsday, directed by Anthony and Joe Russo for Marvel Studios, opens in the US on Friday 18 December, according to Wikipedia. That leaves 14 days of 2026 in which to earn more than Spider-Man’s domestic total, which is still growing slowly.
To get there, Doomsday would need to take about $960 million in the US and Canada by 31 December. For comparison, Spider-Man’s record opening weekend was about $360 million, and its domestic total of $959 million is itself the all-time record for a film’s entire run in the US and Canada. Doomsday would have to beat that in two weeks: beat the biggest opening of all time by a wide margin and then hold up through the Christmas holidays at a level no film has reached.
That is why the market puts Doomsday at about one in ten despite the hype. Polymarket’s separate market on Doomsday’s opening weekend shows how big traders expect it to be: $400 million or more is priced at 58%, up from 30% on 1 November, with $360m to $400m at 21.5%. Wikipedia reports that advance ticket sales had reached about $125 million by the end of October.
Even a record-breaking $400 million-plus opening would leave Doomsday needing roughly another $560 million in its next 11 days. Christmas falls in that window, which helps, but no film has come close to earning that much in the days after its opening weekend. The opening-weekend market is the one to watch: a result well above $400 million on 20 December would be the first sign that the 10% price is too low, and a result below $360 million would all but settle the year-end market for Spider-Man. The 10% price is, in effect, a bet that Doomsday sets records not only on its opening weekend but through the holidays too.
Domestic v worldwide: why the ranking changes
Source: Box Office Mojo 2026 worldwide chart
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Spider-Man: domestic | $959m |
| Spider-Man: international | $1,562m |
| The Odyssey: domestic | $626m |
| The Odyssey: international | $1,177m |
| Toy Story 5: domestic | $480m |
| Toy Story 5: international | $669m |
Box Office Mojo’s 2026 figures show how much of each film’s total comes from outside North America. Spider-Man has taken $1.56 billion internationally against $959 million at home; The Odyssey $1.18 billion against $626 million; Toy Story 5 $669 million against $480 million.
Some films barely register in the domestic chart. Pegasus 3, eighth worldwide at about $656 million, has taken only about $1.4 million in the US and Canada; nearly all of its gross is international. That is why the Polymarket market’s choice of a domestic, calendar-year chart matters: it would rank the year very differently from a worldwide list.
For this market the domestic order is what counts, and on that measure Spider-Man is more than $330 million ahead of The Odyssey with seven weeks of the year left.
Could a November release catch up?
Two more big films arrive before Doomsday. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opens on 20 November, and Polymarket puts its opening weekend above $105 million at 90.6%. Even a very strong run would leave it far short of $959 million by 31 December, and the market prices it at 0.05% to finish top.
Dune: Part Three has its own opening-weekend market, with $130 million or more at 42%. It, too, would need an unprecedented run in a short window. Neither film’s price on the highest-grossing market has moved off the floor.
How the odds have moved
Source: Polymarket price history (daily)
Show the dataHide the data
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | Avengers: Doomsday | Toy Story 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan | 32.5% | 17.5% | 7.0% |
| 1 Mar | 38.5% | 15.5% | 3.2% |
| 1 May | 66.0% | 18.5% | 2.9% |
| 1 Jul | 73.5% | 12.5% | 5.3% |
| 1 Aug | 84.5% | 12.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 Sep | 92.5% | 7.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 Oct | 95.5% | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| 1 Nov | 91.0% | 8.6% | 0.1% |
| 10 Nov | 89.0% | 10.5% | 0.1% |
At the start of 2026 the market was open. Spider-Man was 32.5%, Doomsday 17.5% and Toy Story 5 7%. Spider-Man’s price rose through the spring and summer, reached 84.5% on 1 August, the day after its release, and peaked at 95.5% on 1 October.
Since then Doomsday has clawed back a few points, from 4.85% on 1 October to 10.45% now, as the opening-weekend market became more bullish. Spider-Man has eased from 95.5% to 89%. Toy Story 5 spiked to about 13% in early June before falling away.
Other box office markets
- Avengers: Doomsday opening weekend: $400m+ at 58%, $360m to $400m at 21.5%, $340m to $360m at 10.5%, $300m to $340m at 11%.
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opening weekend (20 to 22 November): $105m+ at 90.6%.
- Where 2026 ranks among US domestic box office years: 7th to 9th at 45%, 10th to 12th at 37%.
For how these markets work and settle, see our guide to how to bet on the box office.
What could still go wrong for Spider-Man
At 89%, the market gives the rest of the field about 11%, almost all of it Doomsday. The main risks to a Spider-Man win are:
- A historic Doomsday run. The scenario above: a record opening followed by an unusually strong holiday hold.
- Data and settlement. The market settles on Box Office Mojo’s calendar chart. Revisions and the exact treatment of the final days of December could matter if the two films end up close.
A short history of the market
The market opened on 12 November 2025, before any of the year’s films had been released. Through the early months it was a contest between franchise names: Spider-Man, Avengers: Doomsday and Toy Story 5 were the top three on 1 January 2026, and several other films, including Wicked: For Good, Wuthering Heights, Scream 7 and Michael, each attracted more than $1.3 million of trading before they fell to the 0.05% floor.
Spider-Man pulled ahead in the spring, when its price rose from 38.5% on 1 March to 66% on 1 May. Its release at the end of July settled most of the question: the record opening weekend took it to 84.5% on 1 August and above 90% by September.
The market has been one of Polymarket’s larger entertainment markets, with $18.4 million traded. Much of that money went on films that are no longer contenders: Scream 7 ($2.48 million), Wuthering Heights ($2.32 million) and Wicked: For Good ($2.21 million) have each traded more than either of the two remaining contenders.
How to trade it
Buying Spider-Man at 90¢ pays $1 if it finishes top, an 11% return over about eight weeks. Buying Doomsday at 10.7¢ pays about 9 times the stake if it overtakes. Polymarket charges takers 5% × price × (1 − price) per share on this market, about 0.45¢ at 90¢ (Polymarket fees). For how to judge whether a price is good value, see how to calculate expected value.
FAQ
What is the highest-grossing movie of 2026 so far? Spider-Man: Brand New Day, with $2.52 billion worldwide and about $959 million in the US and Canada, according to Box Office Mojo.
Can Avengers: Doomsday beat it? For the Polymarket market, only with about $960 million or more in domestic gross between 18 and 31 December. The market gives it about 10%.
Does the market count worldwide box office? No. It uses domestic calendar-year gross from Box Office Mojo.
When does Avengers: Doomsday come out? On 18 December 2026 in the US, according to Wikipedia.
What is the biggest opening weekend of all time in the US? Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s, at about $360 million in July 2026, according to Wikipedia and The Numbers. Polymarket gives Avengers: Doomsday a 58% chance of opening above $400 million.
What is the highest-grossing film of all time? Wikipedia’s 2026 in film page says Avengers: Endgame became the highest-grossing film of all time again in October after a re-release. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is third.
Live prices: highest-grossing movie of 2026 and Avengers: Doomsday opening weekend on Polymarket.
Prices as of 10 November 2026. Sources: Polymarket market data and rules; Box Office Mojo; The Numbers; Wikipedia pages on Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers: Doomsday and 2026 in film. Nothing here is financial advice.
