How to bet on the box office: opening weekend markets, the highest-grossing film of 2026 and how box office predictions settle
Box office markets let you trade on how much a film will make: its opening weekend, its domestic total or whether it will be the year’s biggest hit. With The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opening on 20 November and Avengers: Doomsday on 18 December, here is how the markets work, which numbers they settle on, what the fees cost and the mistakes to avoid.
In this article
Box office predictions have moved from fan forums to the prediction markets. Polymarket lists brackets on the opening weekend of most big releases, markets on a film’s domestic total by a set date, and a market on the highest-grossing film of 2026 that has traded more than $18 million. Two huge releases are coming: The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping opens on 20 November, and Avengers: Doomsday on 18 December.
This guide explains how box office markets work, which figures they settle on, how to read the brackets, what it costs, and the mistakes that catch people out. The settlement details matter more here than almost anywhere else.
The short version
Source: Polymarket public market data; Box Office Mojo
- What you trade: a bracket, such as a $95m to $105m opening weekend, or a named film for a “highest-grossing” market. If it comes in, each share pays $1.
- What settles it: a named data source, usually The Numbers or Box Office Mojo, and a specific figure on that page. Domestic figures, not worldwide, in most markets.
- When: opening-weekend markets settle on the final figures for the three-day weekend, not Sunday’s studio estimates.
- What it costs: a taker fee of 5% × price × (1 − price) per share on Polymarket; nothing if your resting order fills.
The markets you can trade
Opening weekend. The most common box office market. Polymarket splits a film’s opening weekend into brackets. For The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, opening 20 to 22 November, the brackets run from under $65m to $105m or more. For Avengers: Doomsday, from under $260m to $400m or more. For Dune: Part Three, from under $70m to $130m or more.
Total domestic gross by a date. For example, “You Can See Everything total domestic gross by November 30?”, with brackets from under $50m to $175m+.
Highest-grossing film of the year. Polymarket’s market on the top film of 2026 has traded $18.4 million.
Year-level questions. Polymarket also asks where 2026 will rank among the highest US domestic box office years on record: 7th to 9th is the favourite at 45%, with 10th to 12th at 37%.
Kalshi lists film markets too, mostly on Rotten Tomatoes scores, streaming charts and awards rather than box office brackets. The opening-weekend brackets above are on Polymarket.
Read the settlement source first
Opening weekend. The Hunger Games market settles on the “Weekend Box Office Performance” figure for the three-day weekend (20 to 22 November) on the film’s The Numbers page, once the figures are final, not studio estimates. The three-day weekend typically includes Thursday previews. If the figure falls exactly between two brackets, the higher bracket wins. If it is unclear whether the figures are final, the market stays open until both The Numbers and Box Office Mojo show final numbers.
Highest-grossing film of 2026. This one surprises people. It settles on the “Gross” column of Box Office Mojo’s 2026 calendar-gross chart, which is the domestic gross earned in 2026 only. Worldwide totals do not count, and neither do any dollars a film earns after 31 December.
That is why the market prices Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 89% and Avengers: Doomsday at only 10.45%, even though Doomsday is expected to be one of the biggest openings ever. Spider-Man has already taken about $959 million in the US and Canada, according to Box Office Mojo; Doomsday opens on 18 December and would need to beat that total in its first two weeks.
The 2026 box office so far
Source: Box Office Mojo, November 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | $959m |
| The Odyssey | $626m |
| Toy Story 5 | $480m |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | $430m |
| Michael | $372m |
| Project Hail Mary | $344m |
It has been a big year. Spider-Man: Brand New Day has taken about $959 million in the US and Canada and $2.52 billion worldwide, according to Box Office Mojo. The Odyssey follows with about $626 million domestically and $1.8 billion worldwide, and Toy Story 5, Michael and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have each passed $1 billion worldwide.
That record matters for the markets in two ways. It sets the bar for the year-end question, and it is the reason the market on where 2026 ranks among domestic box office years puts the most weight on 7th to 9th.
Reading the brackets
Source: Polymarket public market data
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| <$65m | 0.8¢ |
| $65-75m | 1.5¢ |
| $75-85m | 1.5¢ |
| $85-95m | 1.6¢ |
| $95-105m | 6.5¢ |
| $105m+ | 90.6¢ |
Each bracket is priced like a probability. The Hunger Games market had $105m+ at 90.6¢ and $95m to $105m at 6.45¢: the market expects an opening above $105m and sees anything below $95m as unlikely. The Avengers: Doomsday market is more open: $400m+ at 58¢, $360m to $400m at 21.5¢, and $340m to $360m and $300m to $340m at about 10.5¢ and 11¢. For context, the record US and Canada opening belongs to Spider-Man: Brand New Day this July, according to Wikipedia, at $360.1 million on The Numbers’ count. A 58% price on $400m+ means the market thinks Doomsday is more likely than not to beat it by a wide margin.
Dune: Part Three is the most uncertain of the three: $130m+ at 42¢, $110m to $130m at 30¢ and $90m to $110m at 17¢.
How to estimate an opening weekend
There is no single formula, but traders use a few common inputs:
- Presales. Advance ticket sales are the best early signal. Wikipedia’s page on Avengers: Doomsday reports presales of about $125 million by the end of October, which is unusually large.
- Comparable films. Look at the opening weekends of earlier films in the same franchise or genre, adjusted for ticket prices.
- Thursday previews. The Thursday night preview gross, reported on Friday morning, is one of the strongest last-minute signals, and it is included in the three-day weekend figure the market settles on.
- Theatre count and premium formats. More screens and more IMAX and premium-format showings mean more capacity.
Prices move most on Friday and Saturday of the opening weekend, as daily figures come in. If you trade then, use limit orders: brackets can swing tens of cents in an hour.
Brackets, open ends and how to combine them
Box office brackets differ in width. The Hunger Games market uses $10 million brackets in the middle, Avengers: Doomsday uses brackets of $20 million to $40 million, and every market has an open-ended top bracket, such as $105m+ or $400m+. That top bracket often carries most of the probability for a big release, so a bet on it is really a bet on the film beating a threshold.
You can combine brackets to express a range. If you think Avengers: Doomsday will open between $340 million and $400 million, you can buy both the $340m to $360m and $360m to $400m brackets, which together cost about 32¢ on 10 November. If either comes in, one of your positions pays $1. The cost of the pair is your estimate of the market’s probability for the whole range, before fees.
Do the reverse when you think a range is overpriced: selling, or buying No on, a bracket is a bet that the figure lands anywhere else.
What it costs
- Fees: box office markets on Polymarket carry the culture fee of 5% × price × (1 − price) per share, charged to takers only. At 58¢ that is about 1.22¢; at 90.6¢ about 0.43¢. Makers pay nothing (Polymarket fees).
- Spread: box office markets are thinner than sports or politics. The Hunger Games market had traded about $91,500, and some brackets had gaps of 3¢ or more between bid and ask. Dune’s $110m to $130m bracket was bid at 26¢ and offered at 34¢, an 8¢ spread.
- Liquidity: with less money in the book, a large order can move the price. Use limit orders and be patient (how to read an order book).
Recent examples
The brackets are not always as lopsided as the Hunger Games market. You Can See Everything, a film already in release, had a market on its total domestic gross by 30 November with $100m to $125m at 52¢ and $75m to $100m at 33.7¢, a close call between two neighbouring brackets. Its $100m to $125m bracket had moved about 28 points in a day, and the spread on it was 17¢, a sign of how much a single day’s figures can move a thin market.
Smaller releases attract little money. Several opening-weekend markets for mid-November films had traded only a few dollars by 10 November. On a market like that, the displayed price is just the last trade, and you may not be able to buy or sell at it (how to read market rules).
FAQ
Can you bet on the box office? Yes. Polymarket lists opening-weekend brackets, domestic totals by a date and the highest-grossing film of the year. Kalshi lists other film markets, such as Rotten Tomatoes scores.
Which figure settles an opening-weekend market? For the Hunger Games market, the final three-day weekend figure on The Numbers, including Thursday previews.
Does worldwide box office count? Not in the markets above, which use domestic figures.
Common mistakes
- Using the worldwide number. Most markets settle on domestic (US and Canada) figures. Spider-Man’s $2.52 billion worldwide is irrelevant to a domestic market; its $959 million domestic is what counts.
- Trading on Sunday estimates. Studios publish estimates on Sunday; the markets settle on final figures published later, which can differ by a few million dollars and move a result across a bracket line.
- Forgetting the calendar. A December release earns only a few weeks of the year in a calendar-year market.
- Ignoring the exact-boundary rule. A figure exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket in the Hunger Games market.
How to place a box office trade, step by step
- Open the market and read the rules: which site, which figure, which dates, and what happens on a boundary.
- Check the film’s page on that site and note what has already been reported.
- Form your own estimate and range from presales, comparable films and theatre count.
- Compare your range with the bracket prices and pick the brackets where you disagree most (how to calculate expected value).
- Use a limit order, then watch the Thursday previews and the weekend figures.
Live prices: Hunger Games opening weekend and Avengers: Doomsday opening weekend on Polymarket.
Prices as of 10 November 2026. Box office figures from Box Office Mojo and The Numbers. Prediction markets carry a real risk of loss, and nothing here is financial advice.
