Anthropic launches its IPO roadshow at $70 to $78 a share, and Polymarket makes 19 November the most likely first day of trading
Anthropic has launched the roadshow for its initial public offering, offering 825 million Class A shares at $70 to $78 each on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. At the top of the range the base deal raises about $64 billion. Polymarket now prices Anthropic trading by 23 November at about 92%, up from 47% at the weekend, and a first-day market value between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion as the most likely outcome.
In this article
Anthropic has started selling its shares to investors. The AI company said on 10 November that it had “launched the roadshow for its proposed initial public offering of its Class A common stock.” It expects to price the shares at $70 to $78 each and has applied to list them on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “ANT.”
The offering is 825 million Class A shares: about 801.4 million new shares from Anthropic and about 23.6 million from existing stockholders. Anthropic also expects to give the underwriters a 30-day option to buy up to 123.75 million more. At the top of the range, the base deal would raise about $64.4 billion, Reuters reported, which would make it one of the largest IPOs ever.
The prediction markets reacted at once. Polymarket’s market on when Anthropic shares start trading now puts 19 November as the most likely first day, and its price on trading by the end of November jumped from 79% to 95% overnight.
The deal
Source: Anthropic; Reuters
- Price range: $70.00 to $78.00 a share.
- Shares: 825,000,000 Class A shares, of which 801,351,354 are offered by Anthropic and 23,648,646 by “certain existing stockholders.” Anthropic will not receive any money from the shares those holders sell.
- Option: up to 123,750,000 additional shares over 30 days.
- Listing: Nasdaq Global Select Market, symbol ANT, subject to approval.
- Banks: the preliminary prospectus is available from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. IG reports that Mizuho Securities and MUFG Securities America are also in the syndicate.
Multiplying the shares by the price range, the base offering is worth between $57.75 billion and $64.35 billion before the underwriters’ option. Reuters described the deal as seeking to raise up to $64.4 billion at a valuation of about $1 trillion.
Anthropic has not confirmed a pricing date. Reports differ: IG said the shares are expected to price on Thursday 19 November, while another report put pricing on Wednesday 18 November with trading starting on the 19th.
What the markets expect
Source: Polymarket public market data
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| Value | |
|---|---|
| 16 Nov | 1.0% |
| 17 Nov | 4.4% |
| 18 Nov | 10.0% |
| 19 Nov | 73.0% |
| 20 Nov | 90.0% |
| 25 Nov | 95.0% |
| 30 Nov | 96.0% |
| 31 Dec | 97.9% |
Polymarket’s “Anthropic IPO by…?” market resolves Yes for each date if Anthropic shares are listed on a public exchange and open for trading by 11:59 p.m. ET on that day. On 10 November:
- By 18 November: 10%.
- By 19 November: 73%.
- By 20 November: 90%.
- By 30 November: 96%, up from 79% on 9 November.
- By 31 December: 97.9%.
The jump between 18 and 19 November, from 10% to 73%, is the market’s view of the first trading day, consistent with reports that the shares will start trading on the 19th. The market has traded $7.57 million, more than $560,000 of it in the last day.
The market moved over the weekend as reports of the terms circulated. The price on trading by 23 November was 47% on 8 November, 65% on the morning of 9 November and 88.5% by midnight UTC on 10 November.
Kalshi asks a different question: when Anthropic will officially confirm an IPO, defined as the SEC declaring its registration effective, the IPO being priced, or an exchange assigning a ticker. Its market on confirmation before 16 November was at 2¢, and before 1 December at 95¢. The 2¢ price is not a contradiction of the roadshow news: a roadshow launch and a ticker application do not meet any of Kalshi’s three tests, while pricing, expected later in November, would.
How much will Anthropic be worth?
Source: Polymarket public market data
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| Value | |
|---|---|
| Under $1.25T | 33.7% |
| $1.25T–$1.5T | 38.5% |
| $1.5T–$1.75T | 19.1% |
| $1.75T–$2.0T | 5.5% |
| $2.0T–$2.25T | 2.7% |
| Above $2.25T | 1.9% |
Polymarket’s second Anthropic market asks for its market capitalisation at the closing price on its first day of trading, the shares outstanding multiplied by the closing price. The most likely bracket is $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion at 38.5%, followed by under $1.25 trillion at 33.65% and $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion at 19.05%.
The terms pulled the market lower. In the last day, the under-$1.25 trillion bracket rose about 17 points and the $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion bracket fell about 13. Brackets from $1.75 trillion up all fell. Together, the market puts about a 72% chance on a first-day value under $1.5 trillion.
How does that compare with the price range? Reuters put the valuation at the range at about $1 trillion. One report calculated $916 billion to $1.02 trillion on about 13.1 billion shares outstanding after the offering, and up to $1.41 trillion on a fully diluted basis. IG, writing before the terms were filed, said the reported target had been around $2 trillion, with some investors weighing something closer to $1.5 trillion. The market is betting that the shares trade above the range on day one, but not that far above.
Related markets
Source: Polymarket public market data
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| Value | |
|---|---|
| $1.5 trillion or more | 80.9% |
| $1.75 trillion or more | 43.5% |
| $2.0 trillion or more | 26.0% |
| $2.25 trillion or more | 17.5% |
| $2.5 trillion or more | 14.5% |
| $3.0 trillion or more | 5.5% |
Polymarket has two more markets that turn on the listing:
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit… by 31 December? Traders give $1.5 trillion or more at 80.85% and $2 trillion or more at 26%. A separate bracket on the valuation falling to $800 billion or below is at about 10%. This market covers the whole period to the end of the year, not just the first day, so it is higher than the first-day market at each level.
- Largest IPO of 2026 by market value: this market asks which company has the highest market value at the close of its first trading day in 2026. SpaceX, which listed in June, is at 95.9%; Anthropic is at about 4%, down five points in the last day. The market is saying that Anthropic’s first-day value is very unlikely to top SpaceX’s.
The $7.07 million valuation market and the $7.88 million largest-IPO market are among Polymarket’s busiest markets on a single company.
What happens next
A US IPO roadshow is the period in which the company and its banks present the deal to investors and take orders. The steps that matter for the markets:
- Pricing. Anthropic and its underwriters set the final price, which can be inside, above or below the $70 to $78 range, and decide how many shares to sell. That moment settles Kalshi’s confirmation market.
- First trade. The shares open on the Nasdaq, usually the next morning. That settles the date markets for the day it happens.
- First close. The closing price that day, times the shares outstanding, settles Polymarket’s market-cap market.
Until then, every report on demand, a revised range or a change of timing will move all three markets. A raised price range would tend to lift the higher market-cap brackets; a delay would hit the 19 and 20 November dates first.
The numbers behind the valuation
Anthropic’s own announcement does not include financial figures. Other reports give a sense of the scale:
- Revenue: Reuters reported in August, citing sources, that Anthropic’s annual revenue run rate topped $65 billion by the end of July, and that the company projected 2028 revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion.
- Latest quarter: IG, citing the updated S-1 filed on 2 November, put third-quarter revenue at $16.96 billion, up 46.7% from the second quarter, with adjusted operating profit of $2.46 billion.
- Spending: IG reported committed AI compute spending of $895.4 billion as of 30 September.
For the history of the IPO market and the earlier filing, see our Anthropic IPO date article and our news on the S-1 filing.
How big would it be?
At $64.4 billion, the base deal would be more than twice the size of Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO, which raised about $29.4 billion including the over-allotment, according to IG. One report that includes a planned concurrent private placement of non-voting shares to technology suppliers put the total raise as high as $90.4 billion, which it said would surpass SpaceX’s $86.2 billion debut in June as the largest IPO on record. Those figures depend on the final price and the option, and the reports measure the record differently.
Reuters said the deal could be the first public listing by a frontier AI lab.
How to trade it
The date markets are close to settled at the extremes and uncertain only around 18 to 20 November. Buying “by 20 November” at 90¢ pays 11% if the shares trade by then; buying “by 19 November” at 73¢ is a bet on the reported timetable holding to the day. The market-cap market is the more open question: the two middle brackets, under $1.25 trillion and $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion, together carry about 72%.
Polymarket charges takers 4% × price × (1 − price) a share on both Anthropic markets, about 0.36¢ at 90¢; makers pay nothing (Polymarket fees). Kalshi’s standard fee is 7% × price × (1 − price). Size positions with the possibility of a delay in mind: IPO timetables can slip by days if markets are volatile (how to calculate expected value).
How the markets settle
- Polymarket’s date market resolves on official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the exchange, including SEC filings and listing confirmations, or a consensus of credible reporting. If Anthropic were acquired by a company that is already public, the market would resolve No.
- Polymarket’s market-cap market uses the closing price on the first trading day and the primary exchange’s official listing page; a value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket. If there is no IPO by 31 December 2027, it resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027”, priced at about 1%.
- Kalshi’s market resolves Yes as soon as the SEC declares the registration effective, the IPO is priced or an exchange assigns a ticker.
FAQ
When is the Anthropic IPO? Anthropic launched its roadshow on 10 November 2026 and has not confirmed a date. Reports point to pricing around 18 or 19 November; Polymarket gives 73% to the shares trading by 19 November and 90% by 20 November.
What is the Anthropic IPO price? The expected range is $70 to $78 a share.
What is Anthropic’s ticker? Anthropic has applied to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol ANT.
Can I buy Anthropic stock now? Not on an exchange until the shares begin trading. Until then, the prediction markets let you trade on the timing and the first-day value, not on the shares themselves.
Live prices: Anthropic IPO by… on Polymarket, first-day market value and Kalshi’s IPO confirmation market. For how to read these markets before trading, see how to read market rules.
Prices as of 10 November 2026. Sources: Anthropic’s announcement of 10 November 2026; Reuters; IG; Polymarket and Kalshi market data and rules. Nothing here is financial advice or an offer to buy or sell securities.
