New Zealand election: National wins the most seats but not the most votes, and Polymarket makes Luxon a 90% favourite to stay prime minister
New Zealand’s 7 November election left the National-ACT-NZ First coalition with 67 of 131 seats on the preliminary count, two over a majority, while Labour edged National on the party vote. Polymarket’s market on the most seats jumped from 59% to 98% for National overnight, and Christopher Luxon is about 90% to remain prime minister. Official results are due on 27 November.
In this article
New Zealand’s governing coalition looks set to keep a wafer-thin majority, and the prediction markets have priced it in. On the preliminary count from the 7 November election, the National-ACT-New Zealand First coalition has 67 of 131 seats, two more than the 66 needed for a majority. Labour narrowly won the party vote, but National won six more seats thanks to an 11-seat overhang.
Polymarket’s market on which party wins the most seats moved from 59% for National before the count to 98% after it. Its market on the next prime minister has Christopher Luxon at 89.5%, up from about 55% before election night. All the major parties conceded on the night that the result was too close to call, and the official count, including about 399,000 special votes, is due on 27 November.
The result so far
Source: Wikipedia, preliminary results with 85.9% of votes counted, 8 November 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| National | 42 seats |
| Labour | 36 seats |
| Green | 16 seats |
| ACT | 13 seats |
| NZ First | 12 seats |
| Opportunity | 7 seats |
| Te Pāti Māori | 5 seats |
- National: 42 seats on 29.21% of the party vote, down from 48 seats at the last election.
- Labour: 36 seats on 29.36%, up from 34. Labour won about 3,650 more party votes than National.
- Greens: 16 seats on 13.30%, the party’s best result. ACT 13 seats, NZ First 12.
- The Opportunity Party: 7 seats on about 6%, the first new party to enter Parliament since 2011, according to Wikipedia, and the first new minor party to clear the 5% threshold under MMP, according to 1News.
- Te Pāti Māori: 5 seats.
The government bloc of National, ACT and NZ First has 67 seats. Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and Opportunity together have 64.
It is the first election since 1981 in which National won the most seats but lost the popular vote, Wikipedia notes. The overhang, created when National and Te Pāti Māori won more electorate seats than their party vote entitled them to, pushed Parliament from 120 seats to 131. It also left some of National’s list candidates out of Parliament, including deputy leader Nicola Willis and Gerry Brownlee.
What the markets say
Source: Polymarket price history (UTC)
Show the dataHide the data
| National most seats | Luxon next PM | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov | 66.5% | 52.0% |
| 6 Nov | 61.5% | 54.0% |
| 7 Nov 00:00 | 59.0% | 55.5% |
| 7 Nov 12:00 | 98.9% | 82.5% |
| 8 Nov | 97.7% | 78.5% |
| 9 Nov | 98.3% | 89.5% |
- Most seats: National 98.25%, Labour 1.75%, with $977,000 traded. The market settles on the party that wins the most seats; a tie goes to the party with more party votes.
- Next prime minister: Luxon 89.5%, Labour’s Chris Hipkins 8.5%, $341,000 traded.
- Which coalition forms the government: National + ACT + NZ First 83.5%, Labour + Greens 5.7%, Labour + Greens + Māori 2.65%, National + ACT 2.15%.
- Second place: Labour 98.5%.
Kalshi prices the same questions a little lower. Its market on the election winner has National at about 90¢ to 96¢ (bid 90.8¢, ask 95.8¢, last trade 90.1¢), and its market on the next prime minister has Luxon at 93¢ last traded, with a bid of 87¢. Kalshi’s rule defines the winner as the “party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats”, which may explain some of the gap.
Before polling day, the markets saw a close contest. On 5 November Polymarket had National at 66.5% to win the most seats and Luxon at 52% to remain prime minister; Hipkins was at 44.5%. Within hours of the count, Luxon jumped to 82.5% and Hipkins fell to 12.5%.
What the leaders said
Hipkins told supporters: “We’re not going to know the exact shape of our next government for a little while longer yet,” and “Our next Parliament is going to require all of us to compromise, to work together, and to find common ground,” according to 1News.
ACT leader David Seymour said the final result may not be known until the final count is released “in three Fridays’ time.” NZ First leader Winston Peters urged supporters not to get ahead of the count: “As with all good decision-making you first of all need to know all the facts.”
Willis, who looks likely to lose her place in Parliament, said: “The thing that’s always mattered most to me is that National can form a government and can keep governing the country.” Luxon’s government will operate under caretaker conventions until the official results, Wikipedia reports.
What Labour would need
On the preliminary numbers, the opposition parties together have 64 seats, two short of a majority. For Hipkins to become prime minister, the final count would have to move at least two seats from the government bloc to the opposition, or one of the government parties would have to change sides.
Neither looks likely to the markets. Polymarket’s coalition market prices Labour + Greens + NZ First at 0.5¢ and Labour + Greens + Māori + NZ First at 0.5¢. Any opposition majority would also have to include the Opportunity Party, whose seven seats are part of the 64; Luxon repeatedly ruled out working with it during the campaign, according to 1News, so it is not an option for National. The market’s 8.5% on Hipkins is, in effect, a price on the special votes and the close electorates.
How New Zealand’s system produced this result
New Zealand uses mixed-member proportional voting (MMP). Each voter has two votes: one for a local candidate in an electorate and one party vote. The party vote decides each party’s share of Parliament, and list seats are added so that the total matches that share, as long as the party clears the 5% threshold or wins an electorate.
An overhang happens when a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote entitles it to. It keeps those extra seats, and Parliament grows beyond its usual 120. This year National and Te Pāti Māori won enough electorates to create 11 overhang seats, the main reason National has six more seats than Labour despite slightly fewer party votes.
That is also why the majority line is 66, not the usual 61. With 131 seats, a government needs 66 votes to command a majority, and the current coalition has 67.
The other markets
Source: Polymarket public market data
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Most seats | $977k |
| Next prime minister | $341k |
| Which coalition forms the government | $182k |
| Second place | $101k |
| Turnout | $45k |
| Parties in the next government | $13k |
Polymarket’s New Zealand markets have traded about $1.66 million between them, small next to US elections but large for a country of New Zealand’s size. Most of the money is in the most-seats and prime-minister markets.
Some of the smaller markets are thin, and their prices should be read with care:
- Parties in the next government (Polymarket): National 76%, ACT 75.5%, NZ First 69.5%, Labour 20.5%, Greens 19.5% and Te Pāti Māori 15.5%, with gaps of 10 to 30 cents between bid and ask and only about $13,000 traded.
- The same question on Kalshi: National last traded at 93¢, NZ First 82¢, Opportunity 73¢, ACT 63¢, Labour 37¢ and the Greens 4¢, again on very thin volume and wide spreads.
- Turnout (Polymarket): under 76% at 56¢ and 76-78% at 42¢, with a spread of more than 40 cents on the leading bracket.
On thin markets a single order can move the price a long way, so the last trade can be a poor guide to the real odds (how to read an order book).
Winners and losers
The election produced some notable moments beyond the headline count:
- The Opportunity Party won about 6% and seven seats. The Spinoff called it the first party ever to clear the 5% threshold from a standing start, and its leader Qiulae Wong told supporters: “You have voted for unity over division. You have voted to change New Zealand politics for good,” according to 1News.
- ACT and NZ First both gained seats: ACT up two to 13 and NZ First up four to 12.
- National’s list MPs paid for the overhang. Wikipedia reports that several list-only members were not returned, including Willis and Brownlee. 1News also reported Paul Goldsmith behind ACT leader David Seymour in Epsom.
- The new Te Tai Tokerau Party, formed by Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Tākuta Ferris, appears to have failed, 1News reported.
What could still change
Two seats is a small margin, and the preliminary count is not final:
- Special votes. About 399,000 special votes out of about 2.83 million cast had yet to be counted, Wikipedia reports, around 14% of the total according to The Spinoff, down from 21% in 2023. Special votes can shift list seats.
- Close electorates. 1News reported Te Pāti Māori in a close race for Te Tai Tokerau and National’s Chris Bishop trailing in Hutt South. Electorate results feed directly into the size of the overhang.
- The overhang itself. With 11 overhang seats, a small change in electorates or party votes can move the majority line and the bloc totals.
That is why the markets are not at 100%. A 1.75% price on Labour winning the most seats and an 8.5% price on Hipkins as prime minister are the market’s estimate of the chance the final count and the negotiations go the other way.
How these markets settle
Polymarket’s most-seats market resolves on the official result, as reported by credible sources, or on New Zealand government sources such as the Electoral Commission if there is ambiguity. If the result is not known definitively by 31 October 2027, it resolves to “Other”. The prime-minister and coalition markets have their own rules on what counts and may take longer to settle than the count, because coalition talks only begin once the official results are in; read each market’s rules before trading (how to read market rules).
Kalshi’s election-winner market may resolve early once a consensus of its designated media sources declares a winner.
The timeline
- 27 November: official results, including special votes.
- After that: formal coalition negotiations. 1News reported that the final make-up of Parliament must wait for the official results, followed by a further wait for coalition talks.
- Christmas: The Spinoff reported that Luxon would not commit to forming a government by Christmas. Former Labour leader Andrew Little, speaking on TVNZ’s election panel, predicted “the longest caretaker government ever”.
Until then, the markets will trade on each piece of news: the special-vote count, recounts in close electorates and any signal from the coalition partners.
For other elections the markets have covered this autumn, see Israel’s election on Polymarket and Brazil’s runoff. For how election markets settle in general, see how election markets settle.
Live prices: most seats, next prime minister and the coalition market on Polymarket, and next prime minister on Kalshi.
Prices as of 9 November 2026. Sources: Wikipedia’s page on the 2026 New Zealand general election (preliminary results, 85.9% counted); 1News; The Spinoff; Polymarket and Kalshi market data. Nothing here is financial advice.
