Brazil runoff odds: Polymarket makes Flávio Bolsonaro a 79% favourite over Lula
Brazil votes on 25 October. Polls show a near tie between Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula, but Polymarket’s biggest market of the month gives Bolsonaro about 79%. Why traders are more confident than the polls, and what the margin and turnout markets say.
Polymarket traders expect Senator Flávio Bolsonaro to beat President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil's runoff on Sunday, 25 October. The market gives Bolsonaro about 79% and Lula about 21%, even though the latest polls show the two within a couple of points.
Prices as of 22 October 2026.
The odds
| Candidate | Polymarket |
|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 78.6% |
| Lula da Silva | 21.5% |
With about $191 million traded, it is one of the largest election markets Polymarket has run this year. Live prices: Brazil election on Polymarket.
Polymarket's margin market expects a close result: a Bolsonaro win by less than 4 points is the single most likely outcome at about 41.5%, ahead of a Bolsonaro win by 4–8 points (33.5%) and a narrow Lula win (18.5%). A turnout of 78–80% is the favourite in the turnout market.
Why the market is more confident than the polls
The first round. On 4 October Bolsonaro finished first with 47.03% of all votes to Lula's 45.16%, according to the electoral court, after several major polls had shown Lula ahead; Datafolha's final survey had Lula leading 45–42 on valid votes. Traders are pricing in the chance that polls are understating Bolsonaro again, as they understated his father, Jair Bolsonaro, in 2022.
The runoff polls. Quaest's poll released on 21 October had Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44%, about 50.6–49.4 on valid votes. Other recent polls, from Real Time Big Data (52–48) and Meio/Ideia (51–49), also show a narrow Bolsonaro lead.
A 2-point lead plus a first-round polling miss in the same direction is roughly what a 75–80% price implies. The risk for anyone buying at 79¢ is the obvious one: a lead inside the margin of error.
Can you trade it?
Polymarket's election markets for other countries trade on its international site, which does not accept US residents (where is Polymarket legal?). Results are expected on Sunday evening Brasília time; markets resolve on the official result under their rules (how markets resolve).
