How to bet on soccer on Polymarket and Kalshi: match winners, the draw, Champions League odds and the 90-minute rule

Soccer is the world’s most popular sport, and the prediction markets now list it in depth. Polymarket’s market on the 2026-27 Champions League winner has traded more than $71 million, and its Premier League title market more than $25 million. Both Polymarket and Kalshi list individual matches from the Champions League, the big European leagues and international football, often with dozens of markets per game.

But soccer has two features that trip up newcomers: the draw, and the 90-minute rule. This guide explains how soccer markets work on both platforms, how to read the prices, how the rules settle a match, what it costs, and the current odds for the biggest competitions.

The short version

• Where: Kalshi, regulated in the US, lists Champions League and other league matches and the tournament winners. Polymarket lists more leagues and more markets per match, outside the US.
• What you buy: a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A price of 81.5¢ on a team means the market gives it about an 81.5% chance.
• Three outcomes: home win, draw, away win. You can buy any of them, and the three prices add up to about $1.
• The rule that matters most: match markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count.
• What it costs: a fee only when you take a price that is already on the book, largest at 50¢ and smallest near 0 or $1.

Where you can trade soccer

Polymarket has the widest soccer list: the Champions League, the Premier League, La Liga, the Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, lower divisions, women’s competitions and international matches such as the UEFA Nations League. A typical match has separate markets for each team to win and for the draw, plus side markets such as the exact score. Its main exchange is not open to US residents; in the US, Polymarket runs a separate CFTC-regulated app with a narrower list (how to use Polymarket in the US).

Kalshi, regulated by the CFTC and open in most US states, lists Champions League games in its “UEFA Champions League Game” series, along with markets on the tournament winner, the winning league, the round of 16 and first-half results. It also lists matches from many domestic leagues. If you are new to it, start with our Kalshi review.

How a soccer match market works

On Polymarket, a match such as Czechia v Spain in the Nations League on 12 November is listed as three separate Yes/No questions:

• “Will Spain win?” at 81.5¢
• “Will Czechia v Spain end in a draw?” at 11.5¢
• “Will Czechia win?” at 6.5¢

The three add up to 99.5¢. Exactly one will pay $1. You can also buy No on any of them: No on Czechia at about 93.5¢ is a bet that Spain wins or the game is drawn, the equivalent of a “double chance” bet at a sportsbook.

Kalshi lists the same three outcomes inside one event, with a market called “Tie” for the draw. For Manchester City v Napoli in the Champions League on 24 November, Kalshi had City bid at 75¢ and offered at 78¢, Napoli at 8¢ to 9¢ and the tie at 11¢ to 13¢. For Real Madrid v PSV on the same night, Real Madrid traded at 83¢ and the tie at 12¢.

You do not have to hold to the final whistle. You can sell at the current price at any time, including at half-time (how to sell shares early).

The draw: why it matters

The draw is what makes soccer different from American sports. In the NFL or the NBA there is almost always a winner; in soccer a draw is a common result, and the market prices it explicitly.

Two consequences follow:

1. A favourite’s price is lower than you might expect. Spain at 81.5¢ against a much weaker side is a strong favourite, but the draw still takes 11.5¢ of the probability.
2. Backing a team to win is not the same as backing it not to lose. If you think a team will not lose but might be held to a draw, buy No on its opponent rather than Yes on the team.

The 90-minute rule

This is the single most important rule in soccer markets, and the two platforms agree on it:

• Polymarket: the match markets refer “only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.”
• Kalshi: a team wins its market if it is ahead “after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties).” If the game ends level, the “Tie” market pays.

In a knockout game that goes to extra time and penalties, the team that goes through does not win the match market. The match is settled as a draw. If you want to bet on who advances, look for a separate “to advance” or “to qualify” market and read its rules.

Postponements and abandoned games

The platforms differ here, so read the rules before you trade (how to read market rules).

• Polymarket: if the game is cancelled, does not start by a stated deadline (for Czechia v Spain, two days after the scheduled date), or is abandoned with no official result by then, every market on the game resolves No. If the game is abandoned, the market follows any official awarded result or ruling that comes by the deadline. If the result was already settled before the abandonment, it stands.
• Kalshi: if the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours later, the market settles at a fair price under its rules, rather than No.

The Polymarket rule means that in a cancelled match even the draw market pays nothing. That is rare, but it is a real risk for anyone holding all three outcomes.

Champions League and Premier League odds

Barcelona are the Champions League favourites on Polymarket at 23.5%, ahead of Paris Saint-Germain (18.5%), Real Madrid (14.5%), Arsenal (13.5%) and Bayern Munich (12.5%). Kalshi has the same five at the top: Barcelona 21¢, PSG 19¢, and Arsenal, Real Madrid and Bayern at 14¢ each, with Manchester City at 6¢ and Liverpool at 4¢.

In the Premier League, Polymarket has Arsenal at 76.5% to win the 2026-27 title, far ahead of Brighton (7.05%), Manchester City (6.5%) and Liverpool (6.05%). Prices this lopsided in November mean the market sees the title race as largely settled; the remaining 23.5% is spread across everyone else.

Live prices: Champions League winner on Polymarket, on Kalshi and Premier League winner on Polymarket.

Exact scores and other side markets

Beyond the result, Polymarket lists exact-score markets on many league games: for Liverpool v Manchester United on 22 November there were 37 separate scores, from 0-0 to 5-0 and beyond, and the event had traded about $50,000. These markets are thin. Two weeks before kick-off, many scores had no bids at all and asks of 49¢ or more, so the displayed prices said little about the real chances. Wait until the market fills up, or post your own limit price.

The result markets on a league match fill much faster. Barcelona v Villarreal on 22 November had Barcelona at 80¢ with a 1¢ spread, the draw at 11.5¢ and Villarreal at 8¢, with about $29,000 already traded.

Prediction market v sportsbook

The prices on an exchange add up to about $1: 81.5¢ + 11.5¢ + 6.5¢ = 99.5¢ for Czechia v Spain. A sportsbook’s implied probabilities for the same three outcomes usually add up to several points more than 100%, and that excess is the bookmaker’s margin. On an exchange you pay a fee and the spread instead, which on a liquid match is usually smaller (reading odds).

What it costs: fees and spreads

Both platforms charge a fee only when you take a price already on the book.

• Polymarket: soccer markets carry the sports fee of 5% × price × (1 − price) per share, charged to takers only. At 50¢ that is 1.25¢; at 81.5¢ about 0.75¢; at 11.5¢ about 0.51¢.
• Kalshi: the standard taker fee is 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, rounded up to the cent. Champions League game markets are on the schedule with maker fees, so resting orders that fill pay a quarter of the taker rate (Kalshi fees).

The bigger cost on many soccer markets is the spread. Two weeks before kick-off, some Kalshi Champions League games had gaps of 3¢ to 5¢ between bid and ask and almost no trading. Liquidity builds closer to the match. If the spread is wide, post a limit order at your price (limit order v market order).

How to think about a soccer price

• Convert the three prices into a view. Add up home, draw and away: if they come to more than $1, the gap is the cost of trading at the ask; if less, at the bid.
• The draw is often underrated by casual bettors. Before buying a big favourite at 80¢ or more, ask whether 10% to 15% for the draw looks right for that match.
• Rotation and competition matter. Big clubs play several competitions at once and rest players. Team news, usually an hour before kick-off, can move the price several cents.
• Long-range markets tie up money. A Champions League winner bet placed in November pays out in June. A 23.5¢ position earns nothing for seven months while it waits.

Before you trade, write down your own probability and compare it with the price; only buy if the gap covers the fee and spread (how to calculate expected value). Size each trade so a run of losses does not hurt (Kelly criterion).

How to place a soccer trade, step by step

1. Open the match or tournament on Kalshi or Polymarket and check the date, kick-off time and rules.
2. Decide what you are betting on: a win (Yes on the team), a team not losing (No on the opponent) or the draw.
3. Check the spread and volume. On a thin market, use a limit order.
4. Enter the number of contracts and confirm. The most you can lose is what you paid.
5. Follow the game. You can sell at any time, or hold to the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time.

For other sports on the same platforms, see our sports prediction markets guide, how to bet on tennis and our study of how the 2026 World Cup markets performed.

Prices as of 10 November 2026. Prediction markets carry a real risk of loss, and nothing here is financial advice.