New Zealand Prime Minister after the election?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 04:11 UTCCloses 7 Nov 2027 (in 12 mo)
Most likely: Christopher Luxon
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Christopher Luxon | 85% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Chris Hipkins | 4% | ▼ 1.0 pts |
Chlöe Swarbrick | 3% | — |
Marama Davidson | 3% | — |
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer | 3% | — |
Rawiri Waititi | 3% | — |
Qiulae Wong | 3% | — |
Simeon Brown | 3% | — |
How this market resolves
If Christopher Luxon becomes Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of government formation following the 2026 New Zealand general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Nov 7, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “New Zealand Prime Minister after the election”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Christopher Luxon as the most likely outcome at 85% (as of 11 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 7 Nov 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.