Anthropic IPO date: when will Anthropic go public? IPO odds on Kalshi and Polymarket (and OpenAI’s)
Prediction markets expect Anthropic to list in November 2026, ahead of OpenAI, at a first-day value near $2 trillion. What has been reported about the timetable, how the odds have moved since the confidential filing, the valuation brackets traders are betting on, and the AI race behind it, with charts.
In this article
- Anthropic IPO odds at a glance
- Anthropic in brief
- What has been reported about the timetable
- How an IPO happens, and which step moves which market
- How the odds have moved
- How much will Anthropic be worth?
- Anthropic vs OpenAI: who goes public first?
- The AI race behind the IPO
- Other Anthropic IPO markets
- How to trade IPO markets
- Anthropic IPO: frequently asked questions
- Keep reading
Prediction markets expect Anthropic's IPO in November 2026. As of 22 October, Polymarket gives about a 72% chance that Anthropic's shares are trading by 30 November and 87% by the end of the year; its "which month" market puts November at 72%. On Kalshi, an official confirmation of the IPO (an effective registration, a pricing or a ticker) before 1 December trades at about 86%. Both platforms make Anthropic a 93–95% favourite to go public before OpenAI.
Nothing is final until the company files publicly and prices the deal. Below is what has been reported about the timetable, how the odds have moved since Anthropic's confidential filing in June, what traders think the company will be worth on its first day, and how the race with OpenAI looks from the markets.
Odds as of 22 October 2026. Reported details come from news outlets and have not all been confirmed by Anthropic. Live markets: IPO date on Polymarket · IPO month on Polymarket · IPO confirmation on Kalshi.
Anthropic IPO odds at a glance
| Market | Platform | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO happens in November 2026 | Polymarket | 72% |
| Shares trading by 15 November | Polymarket | 9% |
| Shares trading by 30 November | Polymarket | 72% |
| Shares trading by 31 December | Polymarket | 87% |
| IPO officially confirmed before 16 November | Kalshi | 22% |
| IPO officially confirmed before 1 December | Kalshi | 86% |
| Anthropic goes public before OpenAI | Kalshi / Polymarket | 93% / 95% |
| First-day closing value of $1.8 trillion or more | Polymarket | 60% |
| Morgan Stanley as lead-left underwriter | Kalshi | about 80% |
The two platforms define the event differently. Kalshi resolves "Yes" as soon as the SEC declares the registration effective, the IPO is priced or an exchange assigns a ticker, even if trading starts later. Polymarket needs the shares listed and open for trading by the date. That is why Kalshi's December number can run a little ahead of Polymarket's (how markets resolve).
Anthropic in brief
Anthropic was founded in 2021 by Dario Amodei, its chief executive, Daniela Amodei, its president, and other former OpenAI researchers. It makes the Claude family of AI models and the Claude Code coding assistant, sells mainly to businesses and developers, and is organised as a public benefit corporation, a structure that obliges the company to weigh a stated public mission alongside profits. Amazon and Alphabet are among its largest investors.
Its growth is why the IPO is so closely watched. Reuters reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $16.8 billion, up about 45% on the second quarter, and CNBC reported an annualised revenue run-rate of about $65 billion at the end of July. Investors also flagged that growth was slowing from the extraordinary pace of early 2026, which is behind the October reports of a lower valuation.
What has been reported about the timetable
| When | What happened |
|---|---|
| February 2026 | A funding round values Anthropic at about $380 billion |
| Late May 2026 | A new round values it at $965 billion post-money, above OpenAI's last private valuation of $852 billion (Reuters) |
| 1 June 2026 | Anthropic says it has confidentially submitted a draft registration statement to the SEC for a proposed IPO |
| 8 June 2026 | OpenAI says it has also filed confidentially, but has "not decided on timing yet" |
| 13 September 2026 | Business Insider reports Anthropic has picked the Nasdaq |
| 18 September 2026 | The Wall Street Journal reports the target has moved from October to November, with a raise of up to $100 billion |
| 13 October 2026 | Yahoo Finance reports the aim of trading before Thanksgiving (26 November), with marketing that could start on 9 November and year-end as a fallback |
| 15 October 2026 | Reuters reports investors at an investor day discussed a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, below the roughly $2 trillion expected, as revenue growth slowed; third-quarter revenue was reported at $16.8 billion |
| Mid-October 2026 | IFR reports a plan to file publicly on 26 October, launch the roadshow on 9 November and price the following week |
Reports name Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs as lead banks, and some add JPMorgan. None of these dates is official until the public filing appears on the SEC's EDGAR system. A public filing must be on file at least 15 days before the roadshow starts, so a 9 November roadshow implies a public filing in late October; watch for it.
How an IPO happens, and which step moves which market
| Step | What it is | Which markets react |
|---|---|---|
| Confidential draft | The company files privately with the SEC (Anthropic: 1 June 2026) | "IPO first" and year-end markets |
| Public S-1 | The prospectus goes public, with financials and risks | Everything: date, valuation, governance |
| 15-day wait | The public filing must be out at least 15 days before the roadshow | November deadlines |
| Roadshow | Bankers market the shares to investors, usually over one to two weeks | Valuation brackets |
| Price range and pricing | The company sets a range, then the final price the night before trading | Kalshi's confirmation markets (pricing counts) |
| First trade | Shares open on the exchange | Polymarket's "trading by" and first-close valuation markets |
The scale would be unprecedented. The largest IPO so far, Saudi Aramco in 2019, raised about $26 billion (about $29 billion including extra shares sold afterwards). A raise anywhere near the reported $100 billion would be several times that record.
How the odds have moved
Source: Polymarket price history (daily closes, UTC), “Anthropic IPO by __?”
Show the dataHide the data
| By 31 December 2026 | By 30 November 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Jun | 89.0% | – |
| 9 Jun | 89.5% | – |
| 16 Jun | 77.5% | – |
| 23 Jun | 72.5% | – |
| 30 Jun | 75.5% | – |
| 7 Jul | 75.5% | – |
| 14 Jul | 65.5% | – |
| 21 Jul | 68.5% | – |
| 28 Jul | 71.0% | – |
| 4 Aug | 67.0% | – |
| 11 Aug | 72.5% | – |
| 18 Aug | 84.5% | – |
| 25 Aug | 91.0% | – |
| 1 Sep | 93.5% | – |
| 8 Sep | 86.5% | 85.0% |
| 15 Sep | 85.5% | 79.5% |
| 22 Sep | 78.5% | 56.0% |
| 29 Sep | 75.5% | 61.0% |
| 6 Oct | 81.5% | 67.5% |
| 13 Oct | 72.5% | 58.0% |
| 20 Oct | 77.5% | 64.5% |
| 22 Oct | 87.0% | 72.0% |
The year-end market opened near 89% right after the filing, slid to the 60s in July as the summer passed without a public filing, then climbed to 93.5% at the start of September on reports of an autumn listing. It slipped back into the 70s in the second half of September, as the expected listing moved from October to November, and dipped to about 70% in mid-October around reports of a lower valuation; it is back at 87% with the timetable looking firmer. The November deadline has been choppier, between 55% and 85%, because a slip of even a week or two would push the listing past it.
Kalshi's ladder of deadlines tells the same story, with the jump concentrated in the second half of November:
Source: Kalshi, “When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?”, 22 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Nov 1 | 2% |
| Nov 16 | 22% |
| Dec 1 | 86% |
| Jan 1 | 88% |
| Feb 1 | 89% |
| Mar 1 | 92% |
How much will Anthropic be worth?
Polymarket lists brackets for Anthropic's market value at the close of its first trading day. The most likely bracket is $1.75–2.0 trillion, and the market gives about a 60% chance of $1.8 trillion or more.
Source: Polymarket, “Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap”, 22 October 2026 (the “no IPO by 2027” bracket, about 4.6%, is left out)
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| <1.25 | 4.9% |
| 1.25–1.5 | 5.5% |
| 1.5–1.75 | 16.2% |
| 1.75–2 | 27.0% |
| 2–2.25 | 21.0% |
| 2.25–2.5 | 13.5% |
| 2.5–2.75 | 4.2% |
| 2.75–3 | 1.8% |
| 3+ | 3.2% |
For scale: the last private round valued Anthropic at $965 billion in May, so the market expects the first day to roughly double that. A first-day close of $2 trillion would make it one of the most valuable companies in the world on day one. The reported $1.5 trillion figure from the investor day sits at the low end of what traders expect. Live: first-day market value on Polymarket.
Anthropic vs OpenAI: who goes public first?
For most of 2025, traders expected OpenAI to get there first. That flipped in 2026:
Source: Kalshi price history, “Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?”
Show the dataHide the data
| Anthropic first | |
|---|---|
| 1 Sep ’25 | 26% |
| 15 Sep ’25 | 26% |
| 1 Oct ’25 | 26% |
| 15 Oct ’25 | 27% |
| 1 Nov ’25 | 27% |
| 15 Nov ’25 | 27% |
| 1 Dec ’25 | 27% |
| 15 Dec ’25 | 68% |
| 1 Jan ’26 | 76% |
| 15 Jan ’26 | 79% |
| 1 Feb ’26 | 66% |
| 15 Feb ’26 | 70% |
| 1 Mar ’26 | 52% |
| 15 Mar ’26 | 52% |
| 1 Apr ’26 | 63% |
| 15 Apr ’26 | 69% |
| 1 May ’26 | 71% |
| 15 May ’26 | 72% |
| 1 Jun ’26 | 25% |
| 15 Jun ’26 | 79% |
| 1 Jul ’26 | 83% |
| 15 Jul ’26 | 82% |
| 1 Aug ’26 | 80% |
| 15 Aug ’26 | 93% |
| 1 Sep ’26 | 90% |
| 15 Sep ’26 | 94% |
| 1 Oct ’26 | 93% |
| 15 Oct ’26 | 92% |
| 22 Oct ’26 | 93% |
Kalshi's market sat in the high 20s through autumn 2025, jumped to around 70% in early December, and swung back below 30% in late May when Reuters reported OpenAI was preparing to file within weeks. Anthropic then filed first, on 1 June, and OpenAI followed a week later while saying it had not decided on timing. Since then the gap has only widened: OpenAI's chief executive, Sam Altman, said in September that OpenAI would not go public in 2026, according to Fortune.
| OpenAI IPO market | Platform | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO by 31 December 2026 | Polymarket | 4.5% |
| OpenAI IPO by 31 March 2027 | Polymarket | 21.5% |
| OpenAI IPO before 1 June 2027 | Kalshi | 50% |
| OpenAI IPO by 30 June 2027 | Polymarket | 33.5% |
Live: Anthropic or OpenAI first on Kalshi · on Polymarket · OpenAI IPO on Kalshi · OpenAI IPO on Polymarket.
The AI race behind the IPO
Investors will price Anthropic partly on whether its Claude models stay at the frontier, and there is a market for that too. Kalshi asks which company will have the top-ranked model on the Arena text leaderboard on 31 December 2026:
Source: Kalshi price history, “Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?”
Show the dataHide the data
| Claude (Anthropic) | Gemini (Google) | ChatGPT (OpenAI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jan | 16.0% | 55.0% | 16.0% |
| 19 Jan | 8.0% | 60.0% | 17.0% |
| 2 Feb | 14.0% | 54.0% | 10.0% |
| 16 Feb | 32.0% | 37.0% | 14.0% |
| 2 Mar | 39.0% | 35.0% | 17.0% |
| 16 Mar | 44.0% | 30.0% | 15.0% |
| 30 Mar | 61.1% | 22.0% | 10.0% |
| 13 Apr | 55.5% | 19.0% | 15.5% |
| 27 Apr | 47.0% | 20.8% | 19.8% |
| 11 May | 59.9% | 18.1% | 15.1% |
| 25 May | 66.3% | 19.1% | 11.0% |
| 8 Jun | 63.8% | 14.0% | 14.7% |
| 22 Jun | 67.7% | 13.2% | 13.0% |
| 6 Jul | 59.6% | 15.4% | 17.5% |
| 20 Jul | 68.0% | 11.7% | 13.3% |
| 3 Aug | 65.0% | 8.9% | 14.2% |
| 17 Aug | 68.1% | 7.1% | 11.7% |
| 31 Aug | 69.6% | 7.4% | 16.5% |
| 14 Sep | 70.2% | 7.6% | 16.9% |
| 28 Sep | 74.5% | 7.5% | 10.5% |
| 12 Oct | 44.0% | 39.0% | 11.0% |
| 22 Oct | 50.2% | 38.5% | 8.6% |
Gemini started the year as the favourite, Claude took over in the spring and led through September at around 70%, and then Google's new Gemini model, which topped the leaderboard in early October, cut Claude's lead to roughly 50% against 38%. Polymarket's equivalent market, which uses its own rules, is even closer: Anthropic 48%, Google 43%, OpenAI about 5% (Polymarket's market · Kalshi's market).
Other Anthropic IPO markets
- Lead bank: Kalshi gives Morgan Stanley about 80% to be lead-left underwriter (the bank named first on the cover of the prospectus), Goldman Sachs about 13%.
- Founder control: Kalshi's market on whether chief executive Dario Amodei holds super-voting shares at the IPO trades near 54%, a genuine coin flip. Anthropic is a public benefit corporation, and how its governance carries over into public markets is one of the open questions of the listing.
- OpenAI's first-day value has its own Polymarket market, alongside the OpenAI timing markets above.
How to trade IPO markets
- Know the trigger. Kalshi's confirmation can come days before the first trade; Polymarket needs actual trading. A deal priced on 30 November that opens on 1 December would pay on Kalshi's December market and miss Polymarket's 30 November one.
- Watch EDGAR, not headlines. The public filing, and later the price range and the final pricing, are the moments that move these markets.
- Mind the liquidity. Polymarket's "IPO by" market has traded more than $5 million; Kalshi's individual deadlines are thinner. Use limit orders (limit vs market orders).
- Think about correlation. The date, the valuation and the "first before OpenAI" markets all move on the same news. Holding all three is closer to one big bet than three small ones (Kelly criterion).
- Mind taxes. Profits are taxable like any other prediction market winnings (Kalshi taxes).
These are company-event markets, available to US users on Kalshi; the global Polymarket site is closed to US residents (Kalshi vs Polymarket).
Anthropic IPO: frequently asked questions
When is the Anthropic IPO?
No date is confirmed. Reports point to a Nasdaq listing in mid-to-late November 2026, and prediction markets agree: about 72% for November on Polymarket and 86% for a confirmation before 1 December on Kalshi.
What will Anthropic's ticker symbol be?
It has not been announced; it will appear in the public filing.
How much is Anthropic worth?
Its last private round, in May 2026, valued it at $965 billion. Polymarket's traders expect a first-day close of $1.75–2.0 trillion as the single most likely range.
Will Anthropic go public before OpenAI?
Very likely, according to the markets: 93% on Kalshi and 95% on Polymarket. OpenAI has said it has not decided on timing.
Can I buy Anthropic stock before the IPO?
Not directly as a regular investor: the shares are private until the listing. Some public companies, including Amazon and Alphabet, are large investors in Anthropic.
Where will Anthropic list?
Reports say the Nasdaq, according to Business Insider in September 2026; the exchange will be confirmed in the public filing.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different numbers?
They ask slightly different questions: Kalshi pays on official confirmation (an effective registration, pricing or a ticker), Polymarket on shares actually trading by the date.
Can you bet on the Anthropic IPO?
Yes: Kalshi lists markets on the timing, the order against OpenAI and the lead bank, and Polymarket lists date, month and valuation markets outside the US.
