Best prediction markets in 2026: 12 platforms ranked by fees, markets and where you can use them

The best prediction market for most Americans in 2026 is Kalshi; outside the US it is Polymarket. Those two exchanges handle almost all of the money in prediction markets, list the most questions and have the deepest order books. Everything else on this list is either a smaller exchange with a niche (sports, economics, politics) or an app that sends your order to someone else's exchange.

This guide ranks 12 prediction market platforms on what actually matters when you put money in: whether you can legally use it, what you can trade, how much liquidity there is, what a trade costs, and how easily money gets in and out. The charts use public data from Pew Research Center and The Block, and fee examples are worked from each platform's published schedule.

Rankings, fees and availability as of 22 October 2026. Prediction markets change fast, especially state rules on sports; always check the platform before you deposit.

The ranking at a glance

Also worth knowing: Gemini, Underdog and Fanatics Markets in the US, licensed betting exchanges such as Betfair and Smarkets in the UK, and the free forecasting sites Manifold and Metaculus. They are covered at the end.

How we ranked them

1. Legal access and regulation. A CFTC-regulated exchange, or a broker connected to one, protects your money under federal rules. Offshore sites and anything that needs a VPN lose points automatically.
2. Market range. Elections, economics, weather, culture, crypto and sports: the more of these a platform lists, the more useful one account is.
3. Liquidity. A price is only as good as the size you can trade at it. Volume and tight spreads matter more than any feature (what volume and spread mean).
4. Total cost. The exchange fee plus any app commission, worked out on a real trade, not the headline rate.
5. Tools. Limit orders, an order book you can see, an API for bots (Kalshi and Polymarket APIs).
6. Money in and out. Bank transfers and cards on US apps, USDC on global Polymarket, and how long withdrawals take (withdrawal times).

Where the money is: Kalshi and Polymarket

Prediction markets are a two-horse race. Pew Research Center's analysis of data from The Block shows combined monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rising from under $1 billion in mid-2024 to $53 billion in July 2026, with $47 billion in August. Kalshi pulled ahead in 2025 once it added sports and has stayed there.

Three things stand out:

• The 2024 election made Polymarket famous: its volume jumped to over $4 billion in October 2024, when Kalshi was still tiny.
• Sports made Kalshi the biggest. Kalshi's volume grew more than fortyfold between August 2025 and July 2026, and most of it was sports.
• June and July 2026, with the World Cup, set records on both: Kalshi traded about $40 billion in July alone.

"Notional" means each contract counts at its $1 face value, so these figures overstate the cash actually spent, but they are the standard way to compare exchanges. Everyone else on this list is far smaller, or is routing orders to one of these two.

1. Kalshi: the best prediction market in the US

What it is. The first exchange the CFTC designated for event contracts (in November 2020), open since 2021, valued at $22 billion in its spring 2026 funding round.

What you can trade. The longest menu in the US: Fed decisions, inflation, jobs, weather in dozens of cities, elections, culture, crypto prices and a huge sports book with multi-leg combos. Many apps further down this list, from Coinbase to Robinhood, show Kalshi's markets under their own brand.

What it costs. Takers pay 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent per order: 1.75¢ per contract at 50¢, less towards 1¢ and 99¢. Resting limit orders pay a quarter of that on markets with maker fees. Settlement is free, and Kalshi pays interest on eligible cash and positions (how Kalshi makes money).

Tools. A full order book, limit orders, combos and REST, WebSocket and FIX APIs.

Watch out for. Sports contracts are the subject of state lawsuits, and Kalshi blocks some contracts by location: it is not available in Nevada, sports are blocked in Michigan, and Washington's court order blocks sports and election contracts. The app only shows what you can trade where you are (is Kalshi legal in your state).

Best for: almost everyone in the US, especially if you trade more than one kind of market. Full review: is Kalshi legit · how Kalshi works · the Kalshi app.

2. Polymarket: the best prediction market outside the US

What it is. The global crypto exchange founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020. ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed in October 2025 to invest up to $2 billion at a valuation of about $9 billion (who owns Polymarket).

What you can trade. Everything, worldwide: elections in dozens of countries, wars and diplomacy, crypto prices, culture, tech and sports. Pew's data shows Polymarket averaging about $2 billion a month in politics in 2026, many times Kalshi's political volume.

What it costs. Takers pay a category rate × shares × price × (1 − price). Polymarket's fee page lists 0.04 for politics, finance, tech and mentions, 0.05 for sports, economics, culture and weather, 0.07 for crypto, and zero for geopolitics and world events. Makers never pay and share in rebates (fees compared).

Money. You deposit USDC, trade with pUSD (backed one to one by USDC) and withdraw USDC (how to deposit).

Watch out for. The global site is closed to US residents and close-only in the UK, France, Germany, Australia and other countries (where Polymarket is legal). Markets are resolved through the UMA oracle, which occasionally produces disputed outcomes (how UMA works).

Best for: non-US traders, world politics and crypto. How it works: how does Polymarket work.

3. Polymarket US: Polymarket for Americans

What it is. A separate, CFTC-regulated exchange that Polymarket launched in December 2025 after buying a licensed US exchange. It works in dollars, through an app, with identity checks like any US broker.

Why it ranks high. It is growing fast: according to Pew, Polymarket US went from 4% of Polymarket's total volume in January 2026 to 39% in July. Parlays opened to regular app users in late August 2026 (parlays explained).

What it costs. Takers pay on Polymarket US's own fee schedule, filed with the CFTC, using the same price × (1 − price) formula; the coefficient varies by category. Check the fee line on the order ticket.

Best for: Americans who want Polymarket's markets legally and in dollars. Step by step: how to use Polymarket in the US · is Polymarket legal in the US.

What a trade really costs on each platform

Fees are where platforms differ most, and headline rates hide how they work. Some charge on every trade, some only on winnings, some add a broker commission on top of the exchange fee. Here is the same winning trade on each: $100 spent on 200 contracts at 50¢, which settle at $1, for a $100 profit before fees. The chart shows how much of that profit goes in fees.

Two things the chart does not show. First, when the trade loses, Kalshi and Polymarket takers still pay their fee, while PredictIt and ProphetX charge nothing. Second, every taker also pays the bid–ask spread, which on a thin market can cost more than any fee. That is why limit orders are the single biggest saving on any platform (limit vs market orders).

4. Robinhood: the easiest way in

What it is. A broker, not an exchange. Robinhood's prediction markets hub (launched March 2025) routes orders to Kalshi, to Rothera, the exchange it co-owns with the trading firm Susquehanna (live since 4 June 2026), and, since September 2026, to Crypto.com's spin-off OG.

Size. Prediction markets brought Robinhood $156 million of revenue in the second quarter of 2026.

What it costs. The exchange fee plus Robinhood's commission of up to 1¢ per contract, so up to about 2.75¢ per contract at 50¢ on a Kalshi market.

Best for: occasional trades in an account you already have. If you trade often, Kalshi directly is cheaper and lists more (Robinhood prediction markets · Kalshi vs Robinhood).

5. Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader: the pick for economics and weather

What it is. Interactive Brokers launched ForecastTrader in 2024 on ForecastEx, a CFTC-designated exchange it owns outright, and has since opened it to customers outside the US, including in Europe.

What makes it different. Contracts trade commission-free, and open positions earn an incentive coupon, an interest-like payment Interactive Brokers advertised at 3.83% a year at the time of writing (the rate changes). Its strengths are economic data, central banks and climate, with temperature contracts among its most traded.

Watch out for. A narrower menu than Kalshi, no mainstream sports, and a trading screen built for investors rather than casual users.

Best for: macro traders and anyone who wants to hedge economic or weather risk in a brokerage account.

6. Crypto.com and OG: exchange and app for crypto users

Crypto.com runs a CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse, Crypto.com | Derivatives North America. In February 2026 it moved its prediction markets into a standalone app, OG, and in July 2026 Citadel Securities invested at a reported $5 billion valuation for OG. The same exchange powers other brands, including Underdog's prediction markets and some of Robinhood's football contracts (Underdog Predictions).

Best for: crypto users and sports. Like every operator offering sports, it faces state challenges: Crypto.com sued Missouri after receiving a cease-and-desist letter in September 2026.

7. DraftKings Predictions: sports where sportsbooks are illegal

DraftKings launched Predictions in 38 states in December 2025 and since June 2026 has run it on its own exchange, DKeX, built on the Railbird licence it bought in 2025. Financial markets are available almost nationwide; sports contracts are mostly offered where DraftKings has no licensed sportsbook, such as California and Texas.

Best for: DraftKings customers and sports fans in states without legal online betting. Review: DraftKings Predictions.

8. FanDuel Predicts: the CME Group partnership

FanDuel Predicts opened on 22 December 2025 with CME Group, the world's largest futures exchange operator, listing and clearing the contracts. It offers stock-index, commodity, economic and crypto contracts in all 50 states and sports in about 18, generally where FanDuel has no sportsbook.

Best for: finance-style contracts in a polished app. Explainer: FanDuel Predicts.

9. Coinbase: Kalshi inside your crypto app

Coinbase rolled out prediction markets to users in all 50 states on 28 January 2026. The contracts and liquidity are Kalshi's; Coinbase is the broker, and you can fund trades with dollars or USDC. Reviewers found fees of roughly 1–2¢ per contract, sometimes above Kalshi's own fee.

Best for: Coinbase customers who want to trade a few big events. Details: Coinbase prediction markets.

10. Novig: commission-free sports exchange

Novig's exchange company, Ludlow Exchange, became a CFTC-designated contract market in June 2026 and went live as a regulated exchange in August. It is sports only, requires users to be 21, is available in 47 states plus Washington, DC (not Arizona, Michigan or Nevada), and markets itself as commission-free: the spread is your cost.

Best for: sports traders who care about price. Review: Novig.

11. ProphetX: the sports exchange with its own clearinghouse

ProphetX registered as a clearinghouse on 10 June 2026 and as an exchange on 11 June, and launched nationwide on 18 June. It is sports only, including parlays; reviews describe a fee of 2% of net winnings, with parlays free. It is available in 49 states, though Connecticut ordered it to stop offering sports contracts in September 2026.

Best for: sports traders who want parlays. Review: ProphetX.

12. PredictIt: the original political market

PredictIt has run since 2014 under CFTC relief. A 2025 settlement raised its limit from $850 to $3,500 per contract and removed the 5,000-trader cap. It is simple and focused on US politics, but at 10% of profit plus 5% of every withdrawal it is by far the most expensive platform here.

Best for: small, long-term stakes on US politics if you plan to leave money on the site. Review: PredictIt.

Few exchanges, many storefronts

The most useful thing to understand about prediction market apps is that most of them are not exchanges. They are storefronts for a handful of exchanges, and the exchange decides the prices, the depth of the order book and how a market settles.

So the same question can trade at different prices in different apps. If you have accounts in two places, compare before you buy: our live markets page and spread scanner show Kalshi and Polymarket side by side, after fees.

What each exchange is really for

The two big exchanges have become very different businesses. Since July 2024, according to Pew, sports made up 80% of Kalshi's volume, while Polymarket's international exchange was far more balanced, with politics close to a third of everything traded.

The gap has narrowed since: with the World Cup, sports were about 82% of Polymarket's volume (including Polymarket US) in July 2026. But the pattern explains the rule of thumb: Kalshi for US sports, economics and weather, Polymarket for world politics and crypto.

The best prediction market for…

• Elections and politics: Polymarket globally; in the US, Kalshi or Polymarket US, with PredictIt for small stakes. Everything about election markets: election betting odds guide.
• Sports: Kalshi for depth, Novig and ProphetX for sports-only exchanges, DraftKings and FanDuel where their sportsbooks are not licensed. How it all works: sports prediction markets guide.
• The Fed, inflation and jobs: Kalshi, then Interactive Brokers' ForecastTrader. Live examples: economy markets.
• Weather: Kalshi's daily temperature markets and ForecastEx's climate contracts.
• Crypto prices: Polymarket globally, Kalshi in the US (its crypto volume reached $6 billion in July 2026), Gemini for Gemini users (crypto markets explained).
• Building a bot: Kalshi and Polymarket, which have the most complete public APIs (API guide · trading bots).
• Practising for free: Manifold (play money) and Metaculus (forecasting without money).

Also worth knowing

• Gemini Predictions: the Winklevoss twins' exchange, Gemini Titan, received its CFTC licence in December 2025 and lists crypto, politics and other events (Gemini Predictions).
• Underdog Predictions: sports contracts on Crypto.com's exchange, inside the fantasy app; Underdog agreed in March 2026 to buy Aristotle's exchange and clearinghouse licences to run its own.
• Fanatics Markets: the sports company's prediction app, on a partner exchange.
• Betfair Exchange and Smarkets: gambling-licensed betting exchanges where UK users can back and lay politics and sports while Polymarket is close-only there (Polymarket alternatives).
• Manifold and Metaculus: free forecasting with play money or reputation (Manifold · Metaculus).

How to choose a prediction market in five steps

1. Start with where you live. In the US, use a CFTC-regulated exchange or a broker connected to one; outside the US, check whether Polymarket is open in your country. This alone removes most options.
2. Pick by what you want to trade. Use the list above. One account at Kalshi or Polymarket covers most people.
3. Check liquidity on the actual market. Look at volume and the spread before you buy. A tight spread on a busy market beats a low fee on an empty one.
4. Work out the total cost. Exchange fee plus app commission, on your typical price and size. Fees are highest around 50¢ and on market orders.
5. Open a second account if you trade often. The same question often trades a few points apart, and buying wherever it is cheaper adds up (prediction market arbitrage).

Red flags to avoid

• Unregulated sites that accept anyone. If a platform promises no identity checks to US users, your money has no protection.
• VPNs to reach a blocked site. It breaks the platform's terms, and accounts can be frozen with money inside.
• Fake support and airdrops. Real support never asks for your seed phrase or a "verification" deposit (Polymarket support · airdrop scams).
• Bots that promise guaranteed returns. Most are scams or lose money after fees (trading bots).
• Thin markets quoted as news. A price on a market with a few thousand dollars of volume is one trader's opinion (how accurate are prediction markets).

And whatever platform you choose, keep records: prediction market profits are taxable (Kalshi taxes).

Best prediction markets: frequently asked questions

What is the best prediction market?
For most Americans, Kalshi: it is regulated, has the most markets and the most volume. Outside the US, Polymarket. Polymarket US is the best alternative to Kalshi for Americans.

What is the best prediction market app?
Kalshi's own app if you want the full menu and the lowest cost; Robinhood or Coinbase if you want to trade inside an app you already use. Comparison: prediction market apps.

Which prediction market has the lowest fees?
On most trades, Polymarket: makers pay nothing, politics takers pay a 0.04 rate and world events are free. Kalshi's taker fee is higher, but limit orders cut it to a quarter where maker fees apply. PredictIt is the most expensive.

Are prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes, on CFTC-regulated exchanges and through brokers connected to them. Sports contracts are being challenged by several states, and the question may reach the Supreme Court (is Kalshi legal).

Which prediction market is the most accurate?
On the same event, Kalshi and Polymarket usually agree within a few points; accuracy depends far more on how busy a market is than on the platform (prediction market accuracy).

Can I use more than one prediction market?
Yes, and active traders usually do, to buy wherever the price is better. Our Compare page puts the two biggest side by side.

Keep reading

• Kalshi vs Polymarket
• Polymarket fees vs Kalshi fees
• Prediction market apps
• Polymarket alternatives
• Election betting odds: the complete guide
• Sports prediction markets explained
• How do prediction markets work?
• How to make money on prediction markets
• A short history of prediction markets