Underdog Predictions and Crypto.com: how Underdog’s prediction markets work
Underdog’s sports prediction markets run on Crypto.com’s CFTC-regulated exchange. How the partnership works, how it differs from Underdog Fantasy and from Kalshi, where it is available, and the 2026 legal fights with states.
Underdog Predictions is Underdog's sports prediction market, built on Crypto.com's exchange. Underdog, best known for fantasy sports, runs the app and the customer experience; the contracts are listed and settled by Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), an exchange registered with the CFTC. The partnership was announced on 2 September 2025.
The structure matters: because the contracts trade on a federally regulated exchange, Underdog argues they fall under federal derivatives law rather than state sports betting law. Several states disagree, and in 2026 that fight reached the courts. Underdog is also building its own exchange: in March 2026 it agreed to buy the licensed exchange and clearinghouse of Aristotle, the company behind PredictIt.
As of October 2026. State availability changes often; Underdog's app shows where you can trade.
How Underdog Predictions works
| Underdog Predictions | |
|---|---|
| What you trade | Yes/no contracts on sports outcomes |
| Price | 1¢–99¢, the market's estimated chance |
| Payout | $1 per winning contract, $0 if it loses |
| Exchange | Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CFTC-registered) |
| App | Underdog |
| Who can use it | US users 18+ (higher in some states), physically in an eligible state |
A contract at 58¢ on a team to win means the market gives it about a 58% chance. Buy at 58¢ and you collect $1 if the team wins, a 42¢ profit before fees; sell any time before the game ends at the current price (how to read the odds).
Underdog Predictions vs Underdog Fantasy
| Underdog Fantasy | Underdog Predictions | |
|---|---|---|
| Product | Fantasy contests and pick'em | Event contracts on an exchange |
| Who you play against | The house or other entrants, depending on the game | Other traders in the order book |
| Legal basis | State fantasy sports laws | Federal derivatives law (disputed for sports by some states) |
| Can you sell before the end? | No | Yes, at the market price |
The two can be available in different states, because they rest on different laws.
Where Underdog Predictions is available
It launched in 16 states in September 2025 and expanded through 2026. Published counts in 2026 ranged from the low 20s to more than 30 states plus Washington, DC, partly because the list keeps changing as states act. Check the app before you rely on any list.
The 2026 legal fight
- Early September 2026: Underdog sued Massachusetts, New Mexico, Ohio, Washington and Wisconsin in federal court to stop them enforcing state gambling law against its event contracts.
- 16 September 2026: after a cease-and-desist demand, Underdog sued Connecticut, arguing that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over contracts on registered exchanges. Connecticut's attorney general, William Tong, replied that courts have found sports event contracts no different from sports betting.
- 18 September 2026: Missouri's attorney general sent cease-and-desist letters to Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood. Crypto.com and Novig sued Missouri.
The same question, whether sports event contracts are swaps under federal law or bets under state law, runs through Kalshi's cases too (is Kalshi legal?; is Kalshi gambling?).
Crypto.com, OG and Underdog's own exchange
Crypto.com is not only Underdog's partner. In February 2026 it moved its prediction markets into a standalone app, OG, which runs on the same CFTC-registered exchange and clearinghouse. Citadel Securities invested in July 2026 at a reported $5 billion valuation for OG, and in September 2026 Robinhood began routing some of its football contracts to OG (Robinhood prediction markets). So the same market can appear in several apps with different designs and fees. That is the pattern across the industry: few exchanges, many storefronts.
Underdog is moving toward running its own exchange. In March 2026 it agreed to buy Aristotle's designated contract market and clearing organisation, the CFTC licences needed to list and clear event contracts itself; Aristotle kept PredictIt (PredictIt review). Once that is complete, Underdog could list its markets in-house instead of on Crypto.com's exchange.
Underdog vs Kalshi vs OG
| Underdog Predictions | Kalshi | OG (Crypto.com) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange | Crypto.com's (CDNA), with its own exchange planned | Kalshi | Crypto.com's (CDNA) |
| Focus | Sports | Sports, politics, economics, weather, culture | Sports and events |
| Best for | Underdog fantasy players | Range of markets, limit orders, API | Crypto.com customers |
| Non-sports markets | Limited | Wide | Some |
If you mainly want sports and already use Underdog, its app is the simplest route. For politics, economics or more control over orders, Kalshi or Polymarket US offer more (Kalshi vs Polymarket). Sportsbook-owned alternatives: DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts.
Underdog Predictions: frequently asked questions
What is Underdog Predictions?
Underdog's sports prediction market: yes/no event contracts listed on Crypto.com's CFTC-registered exchange and traded in the Underdog app.
Is Underdog Predictions legal?
It operates under federal derivatives rules, but several states argue sports contracts are illegal betting. In 2026 Underdog sued six states, and Missouri sent it a cease-and-desist letter.
What states is Underdog Predictions available in?
The list changes; it launched in 16 states and expanded through 2026. Check the app for your location.
Is Underdog Predictions the same as Underdog Fantasy?
No. Fantasy is a contest product under state fantasy laws; Predictions is an exchange product where you trade with other users and can sell early.
Who is Underdog's prediction market partner?
Crypto.com, through its exchange Crypto.com | Derivatives North America. Underdog agreed in March 2026 to buy Aristotle's exchange licences so it can run its own.
