Coinbase prediction markets: how they work, what they cost, and Coinbase vs Kalshi
Coinbase lets US users trade yes/no event contracts from the same app as their crypto, powered by Kalshi. How it works, how to fund it, what the fees look like, which markets you get, and when Kalshi itself is the better choice.
Coinbase prediction markets let you trade yes/no contracts on sports, politics, economics, culture and crypto inside the Coinbase app. The contracts and the liquidity come from Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated exchange; Coinbase is the broker that puts them in front of its users.
Coinbase tested the product with a limited group in December 2025 and rolled it out to users in all 50 US states on 28 January 2026.
As of October 2026. Availability, especially for sports contracts, can change as states challenge prediction markets; the app shows what you can trade where you are.
How Coinbase prediction markets work
Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if not. The price, between 1¢ and 99¢, is the market's estimate of the chance: a contract at 63¢ means the market sees about a 63% chance (how to read prediction market odds).
| Coinbase prediction markets | |
|---|---|
| Who runs the market | Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange |
| Coinbase's role | Broker, through its CFTC-registered derivatives business |
| Who can use it | US residents aged 18+ with a verified Coinbase account |
| Funding | US dollars or USDC in your Coinbase account |
| Hours | Nearly around the clock, like Kalshi |
| Categories | Sports, politics, economics (for example, Federal Reserve decisions), culture, crypto |
Because the contracts are Kalshi's, they follow Kalshi's market rules and settle the same way: winning contracts pay $1 when the official source confirms the result (how Kalshi payouts work).
How to start
- Open the Coinbase app and find Predictions (or prediction markets).
- Confirm your identity if you have not already, and accept the product's terms.
- Pick a market, choose Yes or No, and enter an amount.
- Check the order preview, which shows the price, the number of contracts, the fee and the maximum payout.
- Sell any time before the market closes to take a profit or cut a loss, or hold to settlement.
What Coinbase prediction markets cost
Coinbase does not publish a separate fee schedule for predictions; the fee appears in the order preview. Reviewers in 2026 found fees of roughly 1–2¢ per contract on typical trades, and in some cases a markup on top of Kalshi's own exchange fee.
How to check whether you are paying extra: Kalshi's taker fee is 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, rounded up to the cent per order. At 50¢ that is 1.75¢ per contract, at 20¢ it is 1.12¢. If the Coinbase preview shows noticeably more for the same order, the difference is Coinbase's cut (Kalshi fees vs Polymarket fees).
Coinbase vs Kalshi
| Coinbase | Kalshi | |
|---|---|---|
| Markets | A selection of Kalshi's markets | Kalshi's full catalogue |
| Trading tools | Built for quick buys and sells in the app | Market and limit orders, a full order book view |
| Fees | Shown at preview; can include a broker markup | Kalshi's published schedule |
| Funding | Dollars or USDC already on Coinbase | Bank, debit card, wire, crypto |
| API for bots | Coinbase's APIs are built around crypto trading | Full REST, WebSocket and FIX APIs for event contracts |
| Best for | Coinbase users who want to trade a few big events | Active traders, limit orders, niche markets |
If you trade often, use limit orders or want the less popular markets, Kalshi directly is usually cheaper and more flexible. If you already hold cash or USDC on Coinbase and want to take a view on the Super Bowl or a Fed meeting, the Coinbase route is convenient.
Where Coinbase fits among prediction market apps
Coinbase is one of several big brands that rent an exchange rather than run their own:
- Robinhood also started with Kalshi's contracts (Robinhood prediction markets).
- DraftKings and FanDuel launched sports-focused prediction products (DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts).
- Underdog works with Crypto.com's exchange (Underdog Predictions).
Coinbase has said it plans to add more contract providers over time, and in December 2025 it agreed to buy The Clearing Company, a start-up building a derivatives clearinghouse for prediction markets, which points to a bigger role in the future. A full comparison of the apps: best prediction market apps.
Is it legal and safe?
The contracts trade on a federally regulated exchange, which is what lets Coinbase offer them nationwide. Several states argue that sports event contracts are unlicensed sports betting, and in 2026 some sent cease-and-desist letters to prediction market operators; the fight is in the courts (is Kalshi legal?). Your money is held by Coinbase and Kalshi under CFTC rules, not in a crypto wallet.
Coinbase prediction markets: frequently asked questions
Does Coinbase have prediction markets?
Yes. Since January 2026 US users can trade yes/no event contracts in the Coinbase app, powered by Kalshi.
Is Coinbase prediction markets the same as Kalshi?
The contracts are Kalshi's and settle on Kalshi's exchange; Coinbase is the broker and offers a selection of them.
Can I use USDC to trade predictions on Coinbase?
Yes. You can fund trades with US dollars or USDC in your Coinbase account.
What are Coinbase prediction market fees?
Shown in the order preview, typically 1–2¢ per contract in 2026 reviews, sometimes more than Kalshi charges directly.
Is Coinbase predictions available in my state?
Coinbase announced availability in all 50 states, but sports contracts face state challenges; the app shows what is open to you.
