Economy odds

Fed decisions, inflation, jobs and recession odds. Live prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, most traded first.

• KalshiNew Jersey gas prices this week99%Above 4.1000
• KalshiUS gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2700
• KalshiUS gas prices this week99%Above 4.1600
• KalshiFed decision in Oct 2026?86%Fed maintains rate
• KalshiCPI in October98%Above -0.1%
• KalshiNumber of rate cuts in 2026?95%Exactly 0 cuts
• PolymarketHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?97%0 (0 bps)
• KalshiNew York gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.3900
• PolymarketAnthropic IPO by __?73%December 31, 2026
• KalshiSouth Carolina gas prices tomorrow98%Above 3.8150
• KalshiFed decision in Dec 2026?73%Hike 25bps
• KalshiIndiana gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.8350
• KalshiNorth Carolina gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.6150
• PolymarketCrude Oil all time high by...?27%March 31, 2027
• KalshiS&P close price end of 2026?19%7,800 to 7,999.99
• KalshiNasdaq-100 close price end of 2026?13%33,000.01 or above
• KalshiUtah gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.7700
• KalshiWest Virginia gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.1600
• KalshiHow high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?40%$115.01 or above
• KalshiConnecticut gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.3250
• KalshiUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?99%Above 0.0%
• KalshiAlabama gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.8750
• KalshiBank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?84%Maintains rate
• KalshiMassachusetts gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2350
• KalshiSouth Dakota gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2200
• KalshiNebraska gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.1350
• KalshiWashington gas prices tomorrow99%Above 5.3550
• KalshiHow high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?5%Above 91,500 MW
• KalshiEuropean Central Bank rate decision in October95%Maintain current rate
• KalshiMinnesota gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2350
• KalshiPennsylvania gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.4350
• KalshiTennessee gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.8150
• KalshiNumber of rate hikes in 2026?67%Exactly 2
• KalshiRhode Island gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.1950
• KalshiNew Jersey gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2150
• KalshiTexas gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.7600
• KalshiOregon gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.9150
• KalshiGeorgia gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.7050
• KalshiVirginia gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.0450
• KalshiNew Hampshire gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.2300
• KalshiFlorida gas prices tomorrow95%Above 4.1000
• KalshiUnemployment rate in Oct 2026?42%Exactly 4.2%
• KalshiFitness Centers Ad Spend in October98%Above 50
• KalshiHawaii gas prices tomorrow98%Above 5.6000
• KalshiVermont gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.3550
• KalshiHow low will the 7-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?85%4.91% or below
• KalshiKentucky gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.9100
• KalshiDiesel prices this week99%Above $6.06
• KalshiWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?33%Before Feb 1, 2027
• KalshiKansas gas prices tomorrow99%Above 3.9500
• KalshiWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?6%Yes
• KalshiWill the S&P finish positive this year?91%Yes
• KalshiCalifornia gas prices tomorrow99%Above 6.1500
• KalshiMichigan gas prices tomorrow99%Above 4.4950
• KalshiHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?40%Above $4.60
• KalshiConsumer Electronics Ad Spend in October99%Above 85
• KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?76%Before Feb 1, 2027
• KalshiLululemon Credit Card Spend in October94%Above 45
• KalshiGas prices in the US in Oct 2026?99%Above 2.50
• KalshiHow low will US gas prices get in Oct 2026?99%Below $4.30