Geopolitics odds
Conflicts, diplomacy, sanctions and world leaders. Live prices from Polymarket and Kalshi, most traded first.
- PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?98%October 18
- PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?3%Yes
- PolymarketKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?8%December 31
- PolymarketMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?18%December 31
- PolymarketSaudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?34%December 31
- PolymarketIran full airspace closure by...?34%December 31
- PolymarketWill Russia target Kyiv on...?90%October 21
- PolymarketUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?13%December 31
- PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?72%December 31
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?17%March 31, 2027
- PolymarketSaudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?88%October 16
- PolymarketEritrea invades Ethiopia by...?11%December 31
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Dobropillia by...?18%December 31
- PolymarketWill Ukraine target Moscow on...?86%October 18
- PolymarketWill Iran target Jordan by...?18%Yes
- PolymarketMohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?7%Yes
- PolymarketWhich cities will Russia enter by December 31?30%Druzkhivka
- PolymarketWill Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?33%Yes
- PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by...?12%Yes
- PolymarketWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?80%December 31
- PolymarketWill Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?11%December 31
- PolymarketChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?4%Yes
- PolymarketIsrael military action against Lebanon on...?99%October 17
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by...?73%Yes
- PolymarketIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?34%December 31, 2027
- PolymarketShipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?94%October 11
- PolymarketWhich countries will recognize Israel by December 31?9%Venezuela
- PolymarketHow many UKMTO notices October 19–25?48%<8
- PolymarketUSS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?93%November 30
- PolymarketWho will visit Ukraine by December 31?47%Ursula von der Leyen
- PolymarketPutin meets with Iranian officials by...?64%December 31
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Orikhiv by...?61%June 30, 2027
- PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by...?16%December 31
- PolymarketHow many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?73%2
- PolymarketWill Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?63%March 31, 2027
- PolymarketWill Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?5%Yes
- PolymarketWill Russia capture all of Bilytske by...?61%Yes
- PolymarketHouthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?99%October 5
- PolymarketIsrael military action against Syria by...?16%November 30
- PolymarketWill China blockade Taiwan in 2026?4%Yes
- KalshiWhat will Hailey Bieber say during NYT DealBook Summit?80%Rhode
- PolymarketPakistan military action against Yemen by...?16%December 31
- PolymarketPakistan military action against Afghanistan by...?34%November 15
- PolymarketFrance, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by...?5%December 31
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?10%Yes
- PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?28%Yes
- PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?4%Yes
- PolymarketNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?68%4+
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by...?21%Yes
- PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?61%25-29
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Svitle by...?14%Yes
- PolymarketWill Iran target an Arab country by...?60%October 31
- KalshiWhat will Mamdani say during NYT DealBook Summit?89%Tax
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by...?2%Yes
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Vodianske by...?31%Yes
- PolymarketWill Iran target Oman by...?10%November 30
- PolymarketIsrael military action against Iraq by...?7%Yes
- PolymarketWill Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...?53%November 30
- PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: October96%Yes
- PolymarketWill Russia capture Serhiivka by...?14%Yes