U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 23:05 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 50 days)
Chance of “Yes”
Outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | ▲ 0.1 pts |
No | 95% | — |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price “Yes” at 5% (as of 12 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More geopolitics markets
- PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?>99%November 11
- PolymarketUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?13%December 31
- PolymarketWill Iran target Oman by...?80%December 31
- PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?1%Yes
- PolymarketHouthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?27%Yes
- PolymarketIran full airspace closure by...?21%December 31
Latest geopolitics news
- Headquarters of Haitian gang destroyed, El Salvador's president says11 Nov 2026· BBC World
- Three Iran-backed suspects plotted attacks including RAF Fairford incident, US says11 Nov 2026· BBC World
- US Army soldier suspected of spying for Russia arrested in UK11 Nov 2026· BBC World
- Meet the Peaky Blinders, Ukraine's drone unit protecting a devastated front-line city10 Nov 2026· BBC World
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.