Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 07:45 UTCCloses 4 Dec 2026 (in 31 days)
Most likely: Above -25,000
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above -25,000 | 89% | — |
Above 10,000 | 75% | — |
Above 30,000 | 75% | — |
Above 0 | 72% | — |
Above 20,000 | 71% | — |
Above 40,000 | 62% | — |
Above 50,000 | 58% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
Above 60,000 | 56% | ▲ 6.0 pts |
How this market resolves
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Jobs numbers in Nov 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above -25,000 as the most likely outcome at 89% (as of 3 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 4 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.