Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 13:37 UTCCloses 10 Dec 2026 (in 51 days)
Chance of “Yes”
Outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Yes | 81% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
No | 20% | — |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Another Fed rate hike in 2026”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price “Yes” at 81% (as of 20 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 10 Dec 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
More economy markets
- KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?76%Before Feb 1, 2027
- KalshiNew Jersey gas price at year-end 202699%Above 4.0000
- KalshiS&P close price end of 2026?24%7,800 to 7,999.99
- PolymarketAnthropic IPO by __?78%December 31, 2026
- KalshiWill the S&P finish positive this year?91%Yes
- PolymarketHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?97%0 (0 bps)
Latest economy news
- Women may be at greater risk of AI job losses. Telephone switch operators and PCs show why.19 Oct 2026
- Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?19 Oct 2026
- India’s Finance Minister says easy exits and excess liquidity fuel equity market's underperformance19 Oct 2026
- Will The RealReal (REAL) beat quarterly earnings? Trading Odds & Predictions (Oct. 29, 2026)19 Oct 2026
Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.