How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 16:12 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Above $1100
All outcomes (7)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Above $1100 | 11% | — |
Above $1300 | 6% | — |
Above $1000 | 5% | ▲ 2.0 pts |
Above $1400 | 4% | — |
Above $1500 | 3% | — |
Above $1200 | 2% | — |
Above $1600 | 1% | — |
How this market resolves
If the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer in dollars per ton according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports is above $1100 after Issuance and before January 01, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “How high will the price of fertilizer get this year”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Above $1100 as the most likely outcome at 11% (as of 20 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.