Kalshi

How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?

Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 14:41 UTCCloses 3 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: At least 1

38%

Price over the last 7 days, in %

All outcomes (4)

Outcome	Chance	24h
At least 1	38%	—
At least 2	12%	—
At least 3	6%	—
At least 4	4%	—

How this market resolves

If the number of candidates unaffiliated with a political party elected to U.S. House or Senate seats is at least 1 in the 2026 U.S. congressional elections for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “How many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms”?

On Kalshi, traders currently price At least 1 as the most likely outcome at 38% (as of 29 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 3 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

More elections markets

Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.