Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 21:58 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: Gadi Eisenkot
All outcomes (7)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Gadi Eisenkot | 53% | — |
Benjamin Netanyahu | 35% | ▼ 2.0 pts |
Naftali Bennett | 5% | — |
Amir Ohana | 3% | — |
Avigdor Lieberman | 3% | — |
Yair Golan | 3% | — |
Yair Lapid | 3% | — |
How this market resolves
If the President of Israel gives Gadi Eisenkot the first mandate to form a government following the 2026 Knesset election after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Who will get Israel's first mandate to form a government”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Gadi Eisenkot as the most likely outcome at 53% (as of 22 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.