Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 14:42 UTCCloses 20 Jan 2029 (in 27 mo)
Most likely: Before Jan 20, 2029
All outcomes (2)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
Before Jan 20, 2029 | 10% | — |
Before 2027 | 7% | — |
How this market resolves
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Trump recognize Taiwan”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price Before Jan 20, 2029 as the most likely outcome at 10% (as of 29 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 20 Jan 2029. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.