Kalshi

Will Tucker Carlson form a third party?

Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 14:41 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2028 (in 14 mo)

Most likely: Before Jan 1, 2028

25%

Price over the last 7 days, in %

All outcomes (3)

Outcome	Chance	24h
Before Jan 1, 2028	25%	—
Before Jul 1, 2027	23%	—
Before Jan 1, 2027	13%	—

How this market resolves

If a new U.S. political party with Tucker Carlson as a founder, co-founder, or principal organizer files with the FEC or a state election authority as a political party or party committee after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Will Tucker Carlson form a third party”?

On Kalshi, traders currently price Before Jan 1, 2028 as the most likely outcome at 25% (as of 29 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2028. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

More elections markets

Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.