Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
Live Kalshi oddsUpdated 14:41 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
All outcomes (8)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement | 41% | — |
U.S.–Canada interim agreement | 26% | — |
Trilateral revised deal | 24% | — |
U.S. withdrawal notice | 13% | — |
Formal 16-year extension | 12% | — |
Formal USMCA amendment | 11% | — |
Canadian withdrawal notice | 5% | — |
Mexican withdrawal notice | 5% | — |
How this market resolves
If the United States and Mexico reach, as an outcome of the 2026 USMCA review negotiations, a written interim or framework agreement establishing at least one material new or revised commitment concerning the operation, implementation, or revision of USMCA, where the agreement is not limited to withdrawing, suspending, or avoiding unilateral tariffs or retaliatory measures after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026”?
On Kalshi, traders currently price U.S.–Mexico interim agreement as the most likely outcome at 41% (as of 29 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Kalshi, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Kalshi and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.