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Polymarket

Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 21:26 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)

Most likely: November 30

52%▲ 19.0 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
53%38%24%

All outcomes (3)

OutcomeChance24h
November 30
52%▲ 19.0 pts
December 31
52%▲ 1.0 pts
October 31
25%▲ 14.5 pts

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Somali pirates seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date EAT (UTC +3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Seize control refers to Somali pirates taking custody of or asserting operational control over a commercial ship, including boarding and taking control of the ship, holding or detaining it for an indefinite period, or forcefully rerouting it to a location selected or controlled by the perpetrators. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Once a qualifying seizure has occured, any subsequent abandonment, release, rescue, recapture, or other loss of control will not affect the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes or any other form of kinetic attack not resulting in the seizure of the targeted ship will not be considered, regardless of damage occured. A qualifying seizure must be attributed to Somali pirates, or other non-state criminal actors based in or operating from Somalia or Somali territorial waters. The perpetrators need not be individually identified or established to be Somali nationals, and the seizure need not occur in Somali waters. Actions primarily attributed to Somali government or security forces, al-Shabaab, ISIS-Somalia, or any other terrorist, insurgent, or state actor will not qualify. Examples of qualifying seizures include the seizure of the MT Sibu 1 on August 20, 2026, and the seizure of the MV Lutuf on August 17, 2026, both of which have been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have involved Somali pirates taking control of a commercial ship. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a potentially qualifying seizure occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM EAT, …

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by...”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price November 30 as the most likely outcome at 52% (as of 1 Nov 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesks does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

More geopolitics markets

Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesks is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.

Somali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by... odds: November 30 52% on Polymarket