US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by...?
Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 21:58 UTCCloses 1 Jan 2027 (in 2 mo)
Most likely: December 31
All outcomes (2)
| Outcome | Chance | 24h |
|---|---|---|
December 31 | 90% | — |
October 31 | 83% | — |
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) adds CVE-2026-109618 or CVE-2026-109619 (the critical PHP vulnerabilities known as “PHP2Shell”) to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The addition of either CVE will qualify. If either CVE has already been added to the KEV Catalog at the time this market is created, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The “Date Added” shown for the relevant entry in the KEV Catalog will be used to determine whether the addition occurred within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog (https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog); however, official CISA announcements and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by...”?
On Polymarket, traders currently price December 31 as the most likely outcome at 90% (as of 22 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.
What does the percentage mean?
A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.
When does this market resolve?
The scheduled close is 1 Jan 2027. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.
Where can I trade it?
On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.
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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.