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Polymarket

Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?

Live Polymarket oddsUpdated 12:24 UTCCloses 1 Nov 2026 (in 6 days)

Most likely: Google

22%▲ 11.8 pts in 24h
Price over the last 7 days, in %
22%14%6%

All outcomes (8)

OutcomeChance24h
Google
22%▲ 11.8 pts
Microsoft
18%▼ 3.0 pts
SpaceXAI
6%▼ 13.5 pts
DeepSeek
4%▼ 0.3 pts
Meituan
4%▼ 1.5 pts
Meta
3%—
Amazon
3%▼ 0.2 pts
Alibaba
3%▲ 1.5 pts

How this market resolves

On September 12, 2026, Anthropic committed to giving embedded third-party evaluators permanent, ongoing, employee-level access to its AI models and training processes. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces a commitment to grant one or more third-party evaluators ongoing employee-level access to its systems, AI models, and training processes during development by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Arrangements limited to evaluating models before release will not qualify. Current agreements with the Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI) to provide pre-deployment access to AI models will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. Statements that endorse third-party evaluation, describe it as under consideration, or express an intention to explore or discuss it will not qualify. A commitment made as part of a broader agreement with other companies or with a government will qualify, provided the listed company is a party to it and it otherwise meets the requirements above. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the commitment is binding, is later modified or withdrawn, or is ever implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31”?

On Polymarket, traders currently price Google as the most likely outcome at 22% (as of 26 Oct 2026). The price of a share in cents is the market's implied probability.

What does the percentage mean?

A price of 62¢ means the market implies a 62% chance. A correct share pays $1 when the market resolves, an incorrect one pays nothing, so the price moves as traders update their expectations.

When does this market resolve?

The scheduled close is 1 Nov 2026. Markets can resolve earlier or later according to their rules, shown on this page.

Where can I trade it?

On Polymarket, where availability depends on your country. PredictDesk does not take bets: it shows live odds from Polymarket and Kalshi side by side.

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Odds are implied probabilities from Polymarket and change continuously; they may be delayed. PredictDesk is an information service, not a broker or exchange, and is not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi. Nothing here is financial advice. Prediction markets may not be available in your country.