World Series MVP odds 2026: William Contreras leads Jackson Chourio on Kalshi and Polymarket
With the Brewers up 3–0 on the Rays, prediction markets make catcher William Contreras the World Series MVP favourite at 55–58%, ahead of Jackson Chourio at 38–39%, who has eight hits in three games. The full board, how the prices moved game by game, the case for each player and how the award is decided.
In this article
William Contreras is the favourite to be named World Series MVP. With Milwaukee leading Tampa Bay 3–0, Kalshi gives the Brewers catcher about 58% and Polymarket 55%. His teammate Jackson Chourio is the only real rival, at 38–39%; everyone else is at 2% or less.
Prices on the afternoon of 27 October 2026, before Game 4.
World Series MVP odds
| Player | Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Contreras | Brewers, C | 58% (bid 54¢, ask 57¢) | 55% |
| Jackson Chourio | Brewers, LF | 39% | 37.6% |
| Aaron Ashby | Brewers, P | 1.9% | – |
| Junior Caminero | Rays, 3B | – | 1.7% |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Brewers, P | – | 1.6% |
| Brice Turang | Brewers, 2B | – | 1.6% |
| Sal Frelick | Brewers, RF | 1.1% | – |
These are thin markets: Polymarket's MVP market has traded only about $39,000, and Kalshi's spread on Contreras is three cents wide, so prices can jump on a single order. Live prices: MVP on Kalshi · on Polymarket.
How the odds moved
Source: Polymarket price history, MLB Postseason: World Series MVP
Show the dataHide the data
| Contreras | Chourio | |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct | 13% | 14% |
| 23 Oct | 14% | 13% |
| 24 Oct | 15% | 15% |
| 25 Oct | 29% | 18% |
| 26 Oct | 35% | 17% |
| 27 Oct | 55% | 37% |
Before Game 1 the two were level at about 14%, with the rest of the probability spread across Rays players and Brewers pitchers. As Milwaukee won the first two games by a run each, the market narrowed to Brewers hitters, and Game 3's 10–1 rout pushed both leaders up: Rays candidates are now priced as near-impossible, and so are the pitchers.
The case for Contreras
Contreras went 3-for-5 with an RBI in Game 3, batting cleanup. As the catcher he also shares the credit for the pitching, and Milwaukee's pitchers have allowed seven runs in three games, including Robert Gasser's six one-hit innings in Game 3. The market treats him as the safe pick if the Series ends without a single standout moment.
The case for Chourio
Chourio has eight hits in three games, manager Pat Murphy pointed out after Game 3, when he went 4-for-5 with two runs, a stolen base and the double that capped the eight-run fifth inning. That is the kind of line that usually wins the award. If he has another big night in a series-clinching game, the 20-point gap could close fast, and at 37–39¢ he is the value bet for anyone who thinks voters weigh the box score over the position.
The long shots
- Pitchers: Jacob Misiorowski won Game 1, Abner Uribe Game 2 and Gasser Game 3, but no Brewers starter has dominated more than once. Closer Aaron Ashby saved Game 2.
- Rays: an MVP from the losing side has happened only once, Bobby Richardson in 1960. Junior Caminero's 1.7% reflects that.
- Others: Brice Turang (3-for-5, two RBI in Game 3) and Sal Frelick need a huge clinching game to get into the conversation.
How the MVP is chosen
The Willie Mays World Series Most Valuable Player Award is voted on by a panel of media members and MLB officials during the final game, and presented on the field once the Series ends. Kalshi and Polymarket settle on the official announcement. If the Brewers sweep tonight, the markets resolve within hours (how markets resolve).
The Series itself
The Brewers are about 96% to win the World Series on both platforms and 52.5% to win Game 4 tonight at 8 p.m. ET (Game 4 odds; World Series odds).
