Georgia Senate race odds: Jon Ossoff about 96% to beat Mike Collins on Kalshi and Polymarket
Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is about a 95–96% favourite over Republican Mike Collins in Georgia on Kalshi and Polymarket, a week before the 3 November election, with an eight-point lead in the polls and a 12-to-1 cash advantage. The prices, the margin market, the polls, the money and what a runoff would take.
In this article
Jon Ossoff is a heavy favourite to keep his Senate seat in Georgia. Polymarket gives the Democrat about 96% and Kalshi about 95% against Republican Representative Mike Collins, a week before the 3 November election. Polls give Ossoff a lead of about eight points.
Prices on the afternoon of 27 October 2026.
Georgia Senate odds
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff (D) | 95.9% | 94.9% |
| Mike Collins (R) | 4% | 5.2% |
Polymarket's market has traded about $320,000. The price has barely moved in a month, staying between 95% and 97% since late September. Live prices: Georgia Senate on Polymarket · on Kalshi · our Georgia Senate page.
How big will Ossoff win?
The more interesting market is the margin. Polymarket's single most likely bracket is an Ossoff win by 9–12 points, and nearly every dollar sits on an Ossoff win of some size.
Source: Polymarket Georgia Senate margin market, 27 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Collins 3–6 | 0.5% |
| Ossoff 0–3 | 2.9% |
| Ossoff 3–6 | 11.7% |
| Ossoff 6–9 | 13.0% |
| Ossoff 9–12 | 27.5% |
| Ossoff 12–15 | 22.0% |
| Ossoff 15–18 | 12.2% |
| Ossoff 18+ | 9.8% |
That is more confident than the polls: about 71.5% of the money says Ossoff wins by nine points or more, while the polling average has him ahead by about 8.5.
What the polls say
| Poll | Dates | Ossoff | Collins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights (R) | 16–23 Oct | 55 | 40 |
| ActiVote | 6–20 Oct | 54 | 46 |
| Quantus Insights (R) | 15–17 Oct | 52 | 45 |
| University of Georgia SPIA | 7–15 Oct | 48 | 40 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 7–9 Oct | 51 | 43 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 22–23 Sep | 50 | 42 |
The averages agree: 270toWin has Ossoff 52.0%, Collins 43.6%, RealClearPolitics 52.0% to 43.4%, Silver Bulletin 51.3% to 42.4%. In October, even Republican-leaning pollsters showed Ossoff ahead by seven to fifteen points. The forecasters rate it Likely Democratic (Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball) or Lean Democratic (Inside Elections); Silver Bulletin calls it Solid and Split Ticket Safe.
The candidates
- Jon Ossoff won the seat in the January 2021 runoff and is running for a second term. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary.
- Mike Collins has represented Georgia's 10th district in the House since 2023. He led the 19 May Republican primary with 40.5% to Derek Dooley's 30.2% and Representative Buddy Carter's 25.1%, then won the 16 June runoff against Dooley 55.5% to 44.5% after Donald Trump endorsed him.
The two met in a debate on Atlanta News First on 8 October.
The money
Ossoff has a huge money advantage. By 14 October he had raised $136.6 million and had $15.1 million in the bank; Collins had raised $10.7 million and had $1.1 million left.
Could it go to a runoff?
Georgia requires a majority. If no candidate gets more than half the vote, the top two meet in a runoff on 1 December. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution report in July said Libertarians would not be on Georgia's ballot this year, which makes that unlikely, though some polls still list a Libertarian at 1–3%. A thin Polymarket market prices an outright first-round winner at about 84%.
The rest of the Georgia ballot
Ossoff's strength matters further down the ticket. In the open race for governor, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms is about 62% against Republican Rick Jackson even though polls show her slightly behind, and Polymarket's combined market gives a Democratic sweep of both races 60%, Ossoff plus a Republican governor 35.5% and a Republican sweep just 3% (Georgia governor race odds). Traders expect Bottoms to run three to nine points behind Ossoff.
Why Georgia matters for the Senate
Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Georgia was once on Republicans' target list; the markets have taken it off the board: Democrats are about 66.5% to win the chamber (Senate control odds; midterm predictions).
Election night
Georgia's polls close at 7 p.m. ET, among the first in the country, and the state usually counts quickly (Election Day 2026: poll closing times).
