Michigan Senate race odds: El-Sayed about 70% to beat Rogers on Kalshi and Polymarket
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is about a 70% favourite over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s open Senate race on both Kalshi and Polymarket, while polls show a race within three points. The prices, the margin market, the polls, the money, the debates and what to watch on 3 November.
In this article
Abdul El-Sayed is favoured to keep Michigan's open Senate seat for the Democrats. Polymarket gives him about 70.5% and Kalshi about 69% against Republican Mike Rogers, ten days before the 3 November election. The polls are much closer: El-Sayed leads by about three points on average.
Prices on the morning of 24 October 2026.
Michigan Senate odds
| Candidate | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 70.5% | 69% (bid 68¢, ask 69¢) |
| Mike Rogers (R) | 29% | 31–32% |
Polymarket's market has traded about $2.4 million. Live prices: Michigan Senate on Polymarket · on Kalshi · our Michigan Senate page.
The margin market: a close race either way
Polymarket also prices the size of the win, and it tells a more nuanced story than the headline odds: the single most likely result is a narrow Rogers win, but El-Sayed is favoured across all the other brackets combined.
Source: Polymarket Michigan Senate margin market, 24 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Rogers 12+ | 1.6% |
| Rogers 9–12 | 3.5% |
| Rogers 6–9 | 2.8% |
| Rogers 3–6 | 3.5% |
| Rogers 0–3 | 24.5% |
| El-Sayed 0–3 | 23.0% |
| El-Sayed 3–6 | 19.5% |
| El-Sayed 6–9 | 11.0% |
| El-Sayed 9–12 | 5.0% |
| El-Sayed 12+ | 4.6% |
About 48% of the probability sits on a margin of three points or less. In 2024, Rogers lost Michigan's other Senate seat to Elissa Slotkin by just 0.34 points, about 19,000 votes.
What the polls say
The 270toWin average has El-Sayed 48.4%, Rogers 45.2%; other averages put the gap at two to three points.
| Poll | Dates | El-Sayed | Rogers |
|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 21–22 Oct | 47 | 46 |
| Marist (likely voters) | 15–18 Oct | 50 | 48 |
| Rasmussen | 12–14 Oct | 46 | 44 |
| Tyson Group (Rogers-friendly sponsor) | 6–8 Oct | 44 | 46 |
| YouGov | 22 Sep – 4 Oct | 49 | 48 |
A three-point lead ten days out wins roughly 70–75% of the time once normal polling error is allowed for, so the markets and the polls broadly agree (are prediction markets accurate?).
The candidates
- Abdul El-Sayed is a physician and epidemiologist, a former Detroit health director and a 2018 candidate for governor, backed by Bernie Sanders. He won the 4 August primary over Representative Haley Stevens by about 13,800 votes (48.5% to 47.6%).
- Mike Rogers is a former FBI agent who served in the House from 2001 to 2015 and chaired its Intelligence Committee. He is endorsed by Donald Trump and ran unopposed in the primary.
Money and ads
El-Sayed raised about $30.7 million in the third quarter to Rogers' $9.7 million, but Rogers had more cash at the end of September ($6.5 million to $3.8 million). Outside groups have tilted the airwaves the other way: El-Sayed has been outspent on ads by about two to one, including heavy spending by groups linked to AIPAC.
Debates and issues
The two met on 8 October on WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids, a debate so combative they kept arguing through the commercial break, and for a final time on 21 October on WXYZ. The race has turned on the Iran war and Israel, tariffs and Trump's attacks on El-Sayed. Forecasters split: Cook calls it a toss-up, Sabato's Crystal Ball leans Democratic and Inside Elections says it tilts Democratic.
Why Michigan matters for the Senate
The Senate is 53–47 for Republicans, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats; Vice President Vance breaks ties. Michigan is the one Democratic-held seat where Republicans have a real chance, so a Rogers win would force Democrats to flip five Republican seats instead. Markets give Democrats about 67% to win the chamber (Senate control odds; midterm predictions).
Election night
Most Michigan polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern, with four western Upper Peninsula counties an hour later. A margin under a point, as in 2024, can take until the next day to call (when the midterms will be called).
Michigan Senate: frequently asked questions
Who is favoured in the Michigan Senate race?
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, at about 70% on Polymarket and 69% on Kalshi.
What do the polls say?
El-Sayed leads by about three points on average (48.4% to 45.2% in the 270toWin average).
Who did El-Sayed beat in the primary?
Representative Haley Stevens, by about 13,800 votes on 4 August.
When do Michigan polls close?
At 8 p.m. Eastern in most of the state.
