Kalshi and Polymarket set a record $2.7 billion week in crypto contracts, driven by 15-minute bitcoin bets
Crypto contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket hit a record $2.7 billion in weekly volume in mid-October 2026, with Kalshi’s bitcoin markets alone above $2 billion, as traders piled into 15-minute “up or down” bets while bitcoin chopped between $80,000 and $84,000. What drove it and what to know before trading them.
Crypto has become the second engine of prediction markets. Weekly trading in crypto contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7 billion in mid-October 2026, according to figures reported on 24 October by Bitcoin.com and Crypto Briefing, based on data shared by Wu Blockchain. Kalshi's bitcoin contracts alone accounted for more than $2 billion of it.
Volumes are notional (contracts traded times their $1 face value), the measure both companies report.
What drove the record
- Short-term bitcoin bets. Bitcoin spent the week chopping between roughly $80,000 and $84,000, and traders bet on its next move rather than its level at year end.
- 15-minute markets. The fastest-growing product is the 15-minute "up or down" contract: will bitcoin be higher or lower than now in a quarter of an hour?
- New entrants. Polymarket US launched its own 15-minute bitcoin markets in September; they traded $91.76 million in their first full week (23–29 September).
Source: Bitcoin.com, 24 October 2026
Show the dataHide the data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 15-minute markets | 86% |
| Everything else | 14% |
On Kalshi, about $7 billion of the $8.17 billion in crypto contracts traded from 1 to 28 September came from 15-minute markets.
Why it matters
Sports still dominate prediction markets, but crypto contracts have two things sports lack: they run around the clock and they are not under attack by state gaming regulators. Robinhood's head of prediction markets said this week that bitcoin, gold and oil contracts are now its fastest-growing products (Robinhood's fastest-growing markets).
Before you trade a 15-minute contract
- It is close to a coin flip. Over 15 minutes bitcoin's direction is nearly random, so the price usually sits near 50¢, where fees are highest: up to 1.75¢ per contract on Kalshi and on Polymarket's global crypto markets (Kalshi fees; Polymarket fees).
- Losses come fast. Robinhood compared the products to zero-day options: a stake can go to zero in minutes.
- Bots are on the other side. Short-dated markets attract automated traders who react faster than any person (Polymarket trading bots).
